Al-Wasl FC 4-2 Dibba Al-Fujairah – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Al-Wasl FC at 69% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Wasl FC vs Dibba Al-Fujairah encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

Dibba Al-Fujairah travel to Zabeel Stadium to take on Al-Wasl FC in Pro League (matchday 23). The game is scheduled for Friday 24 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Al-Wasl FC stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

In front of their own supporters, Al-Wasl FC have posted 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Al-Wasl FC are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Across their last 10 games, Dibba Al-Fujairah have recorded 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

When travelling, Dibba Al-Fujairah have posted 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.

Al-Wasl FC are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Al-Wasl FC have won 2, Dibba Al-Fujairah 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 28 Dec 2025, ended Al-Wasl FC 3–1 Dibba Al-Fujairah — a Al-Wasl FC win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Al-Wasl FC in-play tendencies (last 22 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games).

Dibba Al-Fujairah in-play tendencies (last 22 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Wasl FC 54% versus Dibba Al-Fujairah 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Wasl FC 41% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Wasl FC 2.04 xG and Dibba Al-Fujairah 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Wasl FC attack 0.987 / defence 0.636 | Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.763 / defence 1.465. League average goals — home 1.412 / away 1.399. Dibba Al-Fujairah's defence rating of 1.465 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al-Wasl FC's projected output up. Dibba Al-Fujairah's attack rating of 0.763 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.68. Al-Wasl FC have a tight defence (rating 0.636), which is pulling Dibba Al-Fujairah's projected output down. Data: built from Al-Wasl FC's last 48 games and Dibba Al-Fujairah's last 22.

Result probabilities: Al-Wasl FC 69% | Draw 20% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 11%. Fair-value odds: Al-Wasl FC 1.45 | Draw 5.06 | Dibba Al-Fujairah 9.00. The model has a clear lean to Al-Wasl FC (69%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al-Wasl FC are the pick at 69% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.72 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Wasl FC 40% (last 10 home games) | Dibba Al-Fujairah 50% (last 10 away games).

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