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Al-Wasl FC cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Dibba Al-Fujairah.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Wasl FC beat Dibba Al-Fujairah 4-2 at Zabeel Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Wasl FC 2.04 xG and Dibba Al-Fujairah 0.68 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Al-Wasl FC beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Dibba Al-Fujairah outscored their 0.68 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Wasl FC attack 0.99 / defence 0.64 against Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.76 / defence 1.47, drawn from 48/22 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Wasl FC 69% | Draw 20% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 11%, with Al-Wasl FC to win its most likely call at 69%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Wasl FC 41%, Dibba Al-Fujairah 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Wasl FC's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Dibba Al-Fujairah's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Wasl FC arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 0.77. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Wasl FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dibba Al-Fujairah (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 2.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights