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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Al-Wasl FC defy the odds to beat Al Wahda FC 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Wasl FC beat Al Wahda FC 2-3 at Al Nahyan Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Wahda FC 1.57 xG and Al-Wasl FC 1.18 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Al-Wasl FC outscored their 1.18 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Wahda FC attack 1.00 / defence 0.88 against Al-Wasl FC attack 0.94 / defence 1.08, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Wahda FC 46% | Draw 27% | Al-Wasl FC 28%, with Al Wahda FC to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Al-Wasl FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Wahda FC 53%, Al-Wasl FC 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Wahda FC's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Al-Wasl FC's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al Wahda FC 1.78 PPG, Al-Wasl FC 1.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Wasl FC win broke the near-deadlock. Al Wahda FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Wasl FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights