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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Al-Jazira defy the odds to beat Al Wahda FC 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Jazira beat Al Wahda FC 1-2 at Al Nahyan Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Wahda FC 1.39 xG and Al-Jazira 0.98 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Al-Jazira outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Wahda FC attack 1.20 / defence 0.79 against Al-Jazira attack 0.85 / defence 0.90, drawn from 41/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Wahda FC 46% | Draw 27% | Al-Jazira 27%, with Al Wahda FC to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Al-Jazira win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Wahda FC 56%, Al-Jazira 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Wahda FC's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Al-Jazira's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al Wahda FC 1.90 PPG, Al-Jazira 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Jazira win broke the near-deadlock. Al Wahda FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.20 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights