Al Wahda FC 2-2 Al-Ittihad Kalba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Wahda FC at 57% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al Wahda FC face Al-Ittihad Kalba.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Al-Ittihad Kalba travel to Al Nahyan Stadium to take on Al Wahda FC in Pro League (matchday 22). The game is scheduled for Thursday 9 April 2026 at 15:55 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Al Wahda FC stand at 2W 5D 3L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Al Wahda FC have posted 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Al Wahda FC are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Al-Ittihad Kalba — last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al Wahda FC 1.10 PPG, Al-Ittihad Kalba 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 9 H2H matches we hold have produced 5 wins for Al Wahda FC, 3 for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 9 H2H matches in our data averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 11 Sep 2025, ended Al Wahda FC 0–0 Al-Ittihad Kalba — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Al Wahda FC in-play tendencies (last 47 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Al-Ittihad Kalba in-play tendencies (last 47 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Wahda FC 53% versus Al-Ittihad Kalba 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Wahda FC 53% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 64%). Note also that Al-Ittihad Kalba surrender HT leads in 50% of cases while Al Wahda FC recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Wahda FC 1.91 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Wahda FC attack 1.004 / defence 0.823 | Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.972 / defence 1.322. League average goals — home 1.435 / away 1.332. Al-Ittihad Kalba's defence rating of 1.322 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al Wahda FC's projected output up. Data: built from Al Wahda FC's last 47 games and Al-Ittihad Kalba's last 47.
Result probabilities: Al Wahda FC 57% | Draw 22% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 21%. Fair-value odds: Al Wahda FC 1.76 | Draw 4.51 | Al-Ittihad Kalba 4.79. The model has a clear lean to Al Wahda FC (57%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Wahda FC are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.97 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Al Wahda FC's last 10 home games and Al-Ittihad Kalba's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.9 goals per game across 9 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al Wahda FC 50% (last 10 home games) | Al-Ittihad Kalba 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Wahda FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba | Competition: Pro League, matchday 22 | Venue: Al Nahyan Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 9 April 2026 at 15:55 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Wahda FC 57% | Draw 22% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Al Wahda FC 1.91 / Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Al Wahda FC attack 1.004 / def 0.823 | Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.972 / def 1.322 | league avg home 1.435 / away 1.332 • Poisson stance: Al Wahda FC (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Al Wahda FC xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
56%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al Wahda FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba FAQs
What time does Al Wahda FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba kick off?
Al Wahda FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba kicked off at 15:55 UK time on Thursday 9 April 2026 at Al Nahyan Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Wahda FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Al Wahda FC 2 - 2 Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Where is Al Wahda FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba being played?
The match is being played at Al Nahyan Stadium.
What competition is Al Wahda FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba part of?
Al Wahda FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba is a Pro League fixture (matchday 22) (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Wahda FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our statistical model gives Al Wahda FC a 57% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad Kalba a 21% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al Wahda FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Wahda FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Al Wahda FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al Wahda FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al Wahda FC's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Al-Ittihad Kalba's defensive record (1.32x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.91. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ittihad Kalba's attack versus Al Wahda FC's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al Wahda FC's last 47 games and Al-Ittihad Kalba's last 47 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Wahda FC Win
57%
1.76
22%
4.51
21%
4.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Al Wahda FC xG
Total xG
2.97
1.06
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.51
22%
Draw
4.79
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
15%
6.72
Win to Nil
20%
5.09
3%
32.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 10.4 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al Wahda FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Wahda FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Al Wahda FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Al Wahda FC and 1.06 for Al-Ittihad Kalba, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Wahda FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al Wahda FC's recent record stands at 22W 17D 8L from 47 games, a 1.77 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-D in the last five.
Al-Ittihad Kalba, meanwhile, have gone 13W 15D 19L across 47 games — 1.15 PPG, with W-D-L-D-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al Wahda FC by 0.62 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Ittihad Kalba heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al Wahda FC have managed 12W 8D 3L from their last 23 home games — 1.91 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's away record stands at 7W 6D 10L across their last 23 away games, a 1.17 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Wahda FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al Wahda FC are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad Kalba are on 1.34 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad Kalba in 66%.
Defensively: Al Wahda FC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Wahda FC
Blended
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Blended
Al Wahda FC (Home) vs Al-Ittihad Kalba (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al Wahda FC
Blended
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Blended
❓ Al Wahda FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba Form FAQs
What form are Al Wahda FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba in coming into this match?
Al Wahda FC have gone 22W 17D 8L in their last 47 games (1.77 PPG), while Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 13W 15D 19L in their last 47 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Wahda FC at home or Al-Ittihad Kalba away?
Al Wahda FC's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Wahda FC at home: 1.91 PPG; Al-Ittihad Kalba away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Al Wahda FC or Al-Ittihad Kalba been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Wahda FC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Al-Ittihad Kalba in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2021. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 9 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Al Wahda FC's record when hosting Al-Ittihad Kalba specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Al Wahda FC
2
Draws
3
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Recent Meetings
❓ Al Wahda FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wahda FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Al Wahda FC have won 5, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Wahda FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 April 2026: Al Wahda FC 2-2 Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Who has won more matches between Al Wahda FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Al Wahda FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Wahda FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Al-Ittihad Kalba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Wahda FC 61%, Al-Ittihad Kalba 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Al Wahda FC and 65% for Al-Ittihad Kalba. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Wahda FC keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Wahda FC home games / Al-Ittihad Kalba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al Wahda FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al Wahda FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Al Wahda FC's games and 65% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Al Wahda FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Al Wahda FC's matches and 65% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's.
Do Al Wahda FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Al Wahda FC's recent matches and 78% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Wahda FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Al Nahyan Stadium, Regular Season - 22, as Al Wahda FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba drew 2-2 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Wahda FC 1.91 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.06 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Al-Ittihad Kalba outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Wahda FC attack 1.00 / defence 0.82 against Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.97 / defence 1.32, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Wahda FC 57% | Draw 22% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 21%, with Al Wahda FC to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Wahda FC 53%, Al-Ittihad Kalba 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Wahda FC's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Wahda FC arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.15. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al Wahda FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.