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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al Wahda FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Al Nahyan Stadium, Regular Season - 22, as Al Wahda FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba drew 2-2 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Wahda FC 1.91 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.06 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Al-Ittihad Kalba outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Wahda FC attack 1.00 / defence 0.82 against Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.97 / defence 1.32, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Wahda FC 57% | Draw 22% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 21%, with Al Wahda FC to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Wahda FC 53%, Al-Ittihad Kalba 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Wahda FC's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al Wahda FC arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.15. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al Wahda FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights