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Sharjah FC cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Al Nasr.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sharjah FC beat Al Nasr 2-4 at Al Maktoum Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Nasr 1.33 xG and Sharjah FC 1.08 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Sharjah FC outscored their 1.08 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Nasr attack 1.06 / defence 0.90 against Sharjah FC attack 0.89 / defence 1.05, drawn from 37/35 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Nasr 42% | Draw 27% | Sharjah FC 30%, with Al Nasr to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Sharjah FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Nasr 60%, Sharjah FC 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Nasr's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Sharjah FC's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al Nasr 1.43 PPG, Sharjah FC 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sharjah FC win broke the near-deadlock. Al Nasr (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.35 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights