Al Nasr 1-1 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Nasr vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 24 as Al Nasr welcome Shabab Al Ahli Dubai to Al Maktoum Stadium. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 13 May 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Nasr stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Nasr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Al Maktoum Stadium, Al Nasr have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Al Nasr are significantly better at Al Maktoum Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Pro League games this season, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W W D L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's away record: 6W 3D 1L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's 2.10 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Al Nasr's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Al Nasr, 2 for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and 3 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.6 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Jan 2025, ended 0–2 with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al Nasr trading profile (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai trading profile (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Nasr 63% and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al Nasr 65% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 78%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Nasr 1.30 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Nasr attack 1.032 / defence 1.022 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.162 / defence 0.825. League average goals — home 1.528 / away 1.383. Data: 49 Al Nasr games / 49 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Nasr 30% | Draw 24% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 45%. Fair-value odds: Al Nasr 3.33 | Draw 4.17 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.22. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shabab Al Ahli Dubai offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.94 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Nasr 70% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Nasr vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Al Maktoum Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 13 May 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Nasr 30% | Draw 24% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Al Nasr 1.30 / Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Al Nasr attack 1.032 / def 1.022 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.162 / def 0.825 | league avg home 1.528 / away 1.383 • Poisson stance: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Al Nasr xG
Expected Goals
1.64
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Nasr vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai kick off?
Al Nasr vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 13 May 2025 at Al Maktoum Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Nasr vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Al Nasr 1 - 1 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
Where is Al Nasr vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai being played?
The match is being played at Al Maktoum Stadium.
What competition is Al Nasr vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai part of?
Al Nasr vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Nasr vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our statistical model gives Al Nasr a 30% chance of winning, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai a 45% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Shabab Al Ahli Dubai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Nasr vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Al Nasr and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai will score (BTTS).
Will Al Nasr vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Nasr and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Record (7 meetings): Al Nasr 2W | Draws 3 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2W.
What form are Al Nasr and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in?
Al Nasr (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-W-D. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al Nasr's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. The same calculation in reverse, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's attack versus Al Nasr's defence, projects 1.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai Win
30%
3.29
24%
4.14
45%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Al Nasr xG
Total xG
2.94
1.64
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
3.29
30%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
2.20
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
19%
5.18
27%
3.67
Win to Nil
6%
17.05
12%
8.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 8.6 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.3 | 9.2 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.3 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Nasr vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Al Nasr and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Al Nasr and 1.64 for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Nasr vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 49 outings, Al Nasr have picked up 1.49 PPG on a 21W 10D 18L record — L-D-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Al Nasr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's form line: 35W 9D 5L from 49 games, 2.33 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-L. The sample for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are the form team by 0.84 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Nasr.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al Nasr have posted 1.79 PPG from 24 outings (13W 4D 7L).
On the road, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 15W 6D 3L from 24 away games — 2.12 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Nasr are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are on 2.53 scored and 1.06 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Nasr have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 63%.
Last 49 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Nasr
Blended
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Nasr and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in coming into this match?
Al Nasr have gone 21W 10D 18L in their last 49 games (1.49 PPG), while Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 35W 9D 5L in their last 49 (2.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Nasr at home or Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's away record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Nasr at home: 1.79 PPG; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away: 2.12 PPG.
Have Al Nasr or Shabab Al Ahli Dubai been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Nasr have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 6 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Nov 2022, when Shabab Al Ahli Dubai won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Nasr's record when hosting Shabab Al Ahli Dubai specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Al Nasr
4
Draws
4
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Nasr and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Nasr have won 2, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al Nasr and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai last play each other?
They last met on 6 May 2026, when Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2-1 Al Nasr.
Who has won more matches between Al Nasr and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Nasr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al Nasr at 62%, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 71%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for Al Nasr and 75% for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Nasr home games / Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Nasr play Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Al Nasr's games and 71% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Nasr vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Al Nasr's matches and 75% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's.
Do Al Nasr and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai tend to score early?
Al Nasr have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Nasr and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Al Maktoum Stadium, Regular Season - 24, as Al Nasr and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai drew 1-1 in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Nasr 1.30 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.64 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Nasr attack 1.03 / defence 1.02 against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.16 / defence 0.82, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Nasr 30% | Draw 24% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 45%, with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Nasr 65%, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 78%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Nasr's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.49. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.