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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al Nasr and Khorfakkan share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Nasr and Khorfakkan finished level at 2-2 at Al Maktoum Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Nasr 1.15 xG and Khorfakkan 1.52 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Al Nasr beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Nasr attack 0.92 / defence 1.06 against Khorfakkan attack 0.96 / defence 0.96, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Nasr 29% | Draw 25% | Khorfakkan 46%, with Khorfakkan to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Nasr 57%, Khorfakkan 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Nasr's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Khorfakkan's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al Nasr 1.40 PPG, Khorfakkan 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights