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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al Nasr and Al-Wasl FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Al Maktoum Stadium, Regular Season - 15, as Al Nasr and Al-Wasl FC drew 1-1 in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Nasr 1.40 xG and Al-Wasl FC 1.72 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Nasr attack 0.96 / defence 1.16 against Al-Wasl FC attack 1.11 / defence 1.14, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Nasr 31% | Draw 23% | Al-Wasl FC 45%, with Al-Wasl FC to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Nasr 60%, Al-Wasl FC 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Nasr's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Wasl FC's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al Nasr 1.42 PPG, Al-Wasl FC 1.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights