Al Nasr 2-0 Al-Jazira – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Jazira at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Nasr vs Al-Jazira encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al Nasr and Al-Jazira meet at Al Maktoum Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 19 February 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al Nasr have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Nasr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Nasr at Al Maktoum Stadium this season: 2W 2D 3L from 7 home games — 1.14 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game.
Al-Jazira's overall Pro League record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W D W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Jazira, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al-Jazira have gone 1W 2D 3L from 6 away fixtures this term (0.83 PPG). Away from home they average 1.17 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.83 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Al-Jazira arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Al Nasr, 1 for Al-Jazira and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2021, ended 1–2 with Al-Jazira winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Al Nasr half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Al-Jazira half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Nasr 57% versus Al-Jazira 57%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al Nasr 71% | Al-Jazira 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Nasr 1.00 xG and Al-Jazira 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Nasr attack 0.884 / defence 1.262 | Al-Jazira attack 1.012 / defence 1.076. League average goals — home 1.056 / away 1.168. Data: 15 Al Nasr games / 14 Al-Jazira games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Nasr 24% | Draw 29% | Al-Jazira 47%. Fair-value odds: Al Nasr 4.17 | Draw 3.45 | Al-Jazira 2.13. Al-Jazira hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Jazira as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Jazira if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.50 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Al Nasr 43% | Al-Jazira 67%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Nasr vs Al-Jazira | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Al Maktoum Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Feb 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Nasr 24% | Draw 29% | Al-Jazira 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Al Nasr 1.00 / Al-Jazira 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Al Nasr attack 0.884 / def 1.262 | Al-Jazira attack 1.012 / def 1.076 | league avg home 1.056 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: Al-Jazira (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Al Nasr xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Al-Jazira xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Nasr vs Al-Jazira kick off?
Al Nasr vs Al-Jazira kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 19 February 2022 at Al Maktoum Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Nasr vs Al-Jazira?
Al Nasr 2 - 0 Al-Jazira.
Where is Al Nasr vs Al-Jazira being played?
The match is being played at Al Maktoum Stadium.
What competition is Al Nasr vs Al-Jazira part of?
Al Nasr vs Al-Jazira is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Nasr vs Al-Jazira?
Our statistical model gives Al Nasr a 24% chance of winning, Al-Jazira a 47% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Al-Jazira the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Nasr vs Al-Jazira?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Al Nasr and Al-Jazira will score (BTTS).
Will Al Nasr vs Al-Jazira have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Nasr and Al-Jazira?
Record (1 meetings): Al Nasr 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Jazira 1W.
What form are Al Nasr and Al-Jazira in?
Al Nasr (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Al-Jazira (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al Nasr's attack rating (0.88) and Al-Jazira's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.00 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Jazira's attack (1.01x) against Al Nasr's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.49.
These ratings are built from 15/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.7%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Jazira Win
24%
4.14
29%
3.49
47%
2.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
0 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Al Nasr xG
Total xG
2.50
1.49
Al-Jazira xG
4.14
24%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
2.12
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
22%
4.45
37%
2.73
Win to Nil
5%
18.39
17%
5.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 12.3 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.3 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.2 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Nasr vs Al-Jazira?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Al Nasr and Al-Jazira expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Al Nasr and 1.49 for Al-Jazira, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Nasr vs Al-Jazira?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al Nasr come into this having played 14 games, going 5W 4D 5L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-D. The sample for Al Nasr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Jazira sit at 1.86 PPG from 14 outings (8W 2D 4L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Al-Jazira is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Jazira carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Al Nasr — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Al Nasr's home form reads 1W 2D 3L across 6 games on their own ground, a 0.83 PPG return. That actually lags their 1.36 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Al-Jazira have taken 0.83 points per game from 6 outings (1W 2D 3L). That's a step down from their 1.86 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al-Jazira's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Nasr are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Al-Jazira are on 1.79 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Jazira in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Nasr
Blended
Al-Jazira
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Nasr and Al-Jazira in coming into this match?
Al Nasr have gone 5W 4D 5L in their last 14 games (1.36 PPG), while Al-Jazira have gone 8W 2D 4L in their last 14 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Nasr at home or Al-Jazira away?
Al Nasr's home record (0.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Nasr at home: 0.83 PPG; Al-Jazira away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Al Nasr or Al-Jazira been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Nasr have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Al-Jazira in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Nasr have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Jazira — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Al Nasr
1
Draws
6
Al-Jazira
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Nasr and Al-Jazira?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Nasr have won 3, Al-Jazira have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Nasr and Al-Jazira last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Al Nasr 3-2 Al-Jazira.
Who has won more matches between Al Nasr and Al-Jazira?
Al-Jazira have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Nasr see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Al-Jazira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Nasr 50%, Al-Jazira 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Al Nasr and 67% for Al-Jazira. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Jazira in 33%; Al Nasr have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Nasr home games / Al-Jazira away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Nasr play Al-Jazira?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Al Nasr's games and 67% of Al-Jazira's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Nasr vs Al-Jazira usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Al Nasr's matches and 67% of Al-Jazira's.
Do Al Nasr and Al-Jazira tend to score early?
Al Nasr have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Al-Jazira in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Nasr cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Al-Jazira.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Nasr beat Al-Jazira 2-0 at Al Maktoum Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Nasr 1.00 xG and Al-Jazira 1.49 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Al Nasr beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Jazira landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Nasr attack 0.88 / defence 1.26 against Al-Jazira attack 1.01 / defence 1.08, drawn from 15/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Nasr 24% | Draw 29% | Al-Jazira 47%, with Al-Jazira to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Al Nasr win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Nasr 71%, Al-Jazira 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Nasr's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Jazira's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Jazira arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.36. Form was overturned, with Al Nasr winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al Nasr (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Jazira (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.