Ajman 4-3 Al-Ittihad Kalba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ittihad Kalba at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ajman vs Al-Ittihad Kalba fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Al-Ittihad Kalba travel to Ajman Stadium to take on Ajman. The game is scheduled for Saturday 19 February 2022, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Ajman have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D L L W D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Ajman, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ajman's home record at Ajman Stadium: 3W 3D 2L from 8 Pro League appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ittihad Kalba stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad Kalba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 2W 2D 2L from 6 away fixtures this term (1.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.17 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al-Ittihad Kalba are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Ajman, 0 for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Ajman trading profile (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Al-Ittihad Kalba trading profile (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ajman 43% versus Al-Ittihad Kalba 57%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ajman 29% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ajman 0.89 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ajman attack 0.775 / defence 1.077 | Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.862 / defence 1.085. League average goals — home 1.056 / away 1.168. Ajman's attack strength of 0.775 is below the league average — the 0.89 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 15 Ajman games / 14 Al-Ittihad Kalba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ajman 28% | Draw 34% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 38%. Fair-value odds: Ajman 3.57 | Draw 2.94 | Al-Ittihad Kalba 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ittihad Kalba as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad Kalba offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.97 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates are neutral: Ajman 50% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ajman vs Al-Ittihad Kalba | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Ajman Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Feb 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ajman 28% | Draw 34% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 40% | xG Ajman 0.89 / Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Ajman attack 0.775 / def 1.077 | Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.862 / def 1.085 | league avg home 1.056 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad Kalba (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Ajman xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ajman vs Al-Ittihad Kalba kick off?
Ajman vs Al-Ittihad Kalba kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 19 February 2022 at Ajman Stadium.
What was the final score in Ajman vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Ajman 4 - 3 Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Where is Ajman vs Al-Ittihad Kalba being played?
The match is being played at Ajman Stadium.
What competition is Ajman vs Al-Ittihad Kalba part of?
Ajman vs Al-Ittihad Kalba is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Ajman vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our statistical model gives Ajman a 28% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad Kalba a 38% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad Kalba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ajman vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Ajman and Al-Ittihad Kalba will score (BTTS).
Will Ajman vs Al-Ittihad Kalba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ajman and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Record (1 meetings): Ajman 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Ittihad Kalba 0W.
What form are Ajman and Al-Ittihad Kalba in?
Ajman (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-W-D. Al-Ittihad Kalba (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Ajman's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Al-Ittihad Kalba's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.89. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ittihad Kalba's attack versus Ajman's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad Kalba Win
28%
3.57
34%
2.97
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Ajman xG
Total xG
1.97
1.08
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
3.57
28%
Home win
2.97
34%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
41%
2.43
Win to Nil
9%
10.57
16%
6.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.9 | 15.1 | 8.2 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.4 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ajman vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Ajman and Al-Ittihad Kalba expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Ajman and 1.08 for Al-Ittihad Kalba, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Ajman vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ajman's recent record stands at 4W 4D 6L from 14 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Ajman is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ittihad Kalba, meanwhile, have gone 4W 6D 4L across 14 games — 1.29 PPG, with D-W-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Al-Ittihad Kalba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ajman on 1.14 PPG, Al-Ittihad Kalba on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Ajman have managed 2W 2D 2L from 6 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's away record stands at 2W 2D 2L across 6 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Ajman are averaging 0.79 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad Kalba are on 1.00 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Last 14 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ajman
Blended
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ajman and Al-Ittihad Kalba in coming into this match?
Ajman have gone 4W 4D 6L in their last 14 games (1.14 PPG), while Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 4W 6D 4L in their last 14 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ajman at home or Al-Ittihad Kalba away?
Ajman's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ajman at home: 1.33 PPG; Al-Ittihad Kalba away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ajman and Al-Ittihad Kalba runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ajman's record when hosting Al-Ittihad Kalba specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Ajman
1
Draws
4
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ajman and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
From 10 meetings on record, Ajman have won 5, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ajman and Al-Ittihad Kalba last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Al-Ittihad Kalba 1-3 Ajman.
Who has won more matches between Ajman and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Ajman have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ajman are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Al-Ittihad Kalba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ajman 50%, Al-Ittihad Kalba 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Ajman and 33% for Al-Ittihad Kalba.
On the defensive side: Ajman keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Al-Ittihad Kalba in 33%; Ajman have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ajman home games / Al-Ittihad Kalba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ajman play Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Ajman's recent matches and 50% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ajman vs Al-Ittihad Kalba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Ajman's recent games and 33% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ajman and Al-Ittihad Kalba tend to score early?
Ajman have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad Kalba in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ajman defy the odds to beat Al-Ittihad Kalba 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ajman beat Al-Ittihad Kalba 4-3 at Ajman Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajman 0.89 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.08 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Ajman beat their projection by 3.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Ittihad Kalba outscored their 1.08 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajman attack 0.78 / defence 1.08 against Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.86 / defence 1.08, drawn from 15/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ajman 28% | Draw 34% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 38%, with Al-Ittihad Kalba to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Ajman win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajman 29%, Al-Ittihad Kalba 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ajman's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ajman 1.14 PPG, Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ajman win broke the near-deadlock. Ajman (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Ittihad Kalba (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.