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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Al Nasr edge out Al-Ittihad Kalba 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Nasr beat Al-Ittihad Kalba 3-2 at Al Maktoum Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Nasr 1.71 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.20 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Al Nasr beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Nasr attack 1.05 / defence 0.90 against Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.91 / defence 0.83, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Nasr 46% | Draw 29% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 24%, with Al Nasr to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Nasr 65%, Al-Ittihad Kalba 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Nasr's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al Nasr arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 1.16. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al Nasr (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.56 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Ittihad Kalba (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.61 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights