🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Al-Jazira cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Khorfakkan.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Jazira beat Khorfakkan 3-1 at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Jazira 1.72 xG and Khorfakkan 1.14 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Al-Jazira beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Jazira attack 1.24 / defence 0.80 against Khorfakkan attack 1.05 / defence 0.99, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Jazira 51% | Draw 24% | Khorfakkan 25%, with Al-Jazira to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Jazira 53%, Khorfakkan 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Jazira's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Khorfakkan's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Jazira arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Jazira (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.59 average — above their attacking norm. Khorfakkan (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights