Al-Jazira 4-3 Dibba Al-Fujairah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Jazira (77%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Jazira face Dibba Al-Fujairah.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium plays host to Al-Jazira versus Dibba Al-Fujairah in Pro League, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Saturday 11 April 2026 at 14:55 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Jazira have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Jazira, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium, Al-Jazira have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Dibba Al-Fujairah's overall Pro League record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Dibba Al-Fujairah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Dibba Al-Fujairah have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Al-Jazira's favour (1.90 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Al-Jazira, who have won 3 of the last 3 meetings against Dibba Al-Fujairah — a 0D 0W return for the visitors.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.3 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2025, ended 1–0 with Al-Jazira winning.
The historical record gives Al-Jazira a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 3 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Data
Al-Jazira goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Dibba Al-Fujairah goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Jazira 48% versus Dibba Al-Fujairah 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Jazira 52% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Jazira 2.48 xG and Dibba Al-Fujairah 0.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Jazira attack 1.274 / defence 0.816 | Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.593 / defence 1.341. League average goals — home 1.453 / away 1.345. Al-Jazira carry an above-average attack strength of 1.274 — their λ of 2.48 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Dibba Al-Fujairah bring a strong defensive rating of 1.341 — this is suppressing Al-Jazira's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 47 Al-Jazira games / 21 Dibba Al-Fujairah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Jazira 77% | Draw 15% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 8%. Fair-value odds: Al-Jazira 1.30 | Draw 6.67 | Dibba Al-Fujairah 12.50. The model has a clear lean to Al-Jazira (77%) — a 69pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Jazira are the pick at 77% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.13 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Jazira 30% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Jazira vs Dibba Al-Fujairah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Apr 2026, 14:55 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Jazira 77% | Draw 15% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 44% | xG Al-Jazira 2.48 / Dibba Al-Fujairah 0.65 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Jazira attack 1.274 / def 0.816 | Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.593 / def 1.341 | league avg home 1.453 / away 1.345 • Poisson stance: Al-Jazira (77%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.48
Al-Jazira xG
Expected Goals
0.65
Dibba Al-Fujairah xG
44%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Jazira vs Dibba Al-Fujairah kick off?
Al-Jazira vs Dibba Al-Fujairah kicked off at 14:55 on Saturday 11 April 2026 at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Jazira vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Al-Jazira 4 - 3 Dibba Al-Fujairah.
Where is Al-Jazira vs Dibba Al-Fujairah being played?
The match is being played at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium.
What competition is Al-Jazira vs Dibba Al-Fujairah part of?
Al-Jazira vs Dibba Al-Fujairah is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Jazira vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Our statistical model gives Al-Jazira a 77% chance of winning, Dibba Al-Fujairah a 8% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Al-Jazira the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Jazira vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Al-Jazira and Dibba Al-Fujairah will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Jazira vs Dibba Al-Fujairah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Jazira and Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Record (3 meetings): Al-Jazira 3W | Draws 0 | Dibba Al-Fujairah 0W.
What form are Al-Jazira and Dibba Al-Fujairah in?
Al-Jazira (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Dibba Al-Fujairah (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al-Jazira's attack rating (1.27) and Dibba Al-Fujairah's defence rating (1.34), the model arrives at 2.48 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Dibba Al-Fujairah's attack (0.59x) against Al-Jazira's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.65.
These ratings are built from 47/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 3-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Jazira Win
77%
1.29
15%
6.69
8%
13.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
11.1%
Home win
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.48
Al-Jazira xG
Total xG
3.13
0.65
Dibba Al-Fujairah xG
1.29
77%
Home win
6.69
15%
Draw
13.09
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
52%
1.92
8%
11.98
Win to Nil
40%
2.48
1%
156.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 10.8 | 7.0 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.4 | 8.7 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 11.1 | 7.2 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 6.9 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Jazira vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Al-Jazira and Dibba Al-Fujairah expected to score?
The model projects 2.48 expected goals for Al-Jazira and 0.65 for Dibba Al-Fujairah, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Jazira vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 77%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Jazira's recent record stands at 11W 4D 6L from 21 games, a 1.76 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Al-Jazira is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dibba Al-Fujairah, meanwhile, have gone 4W 5D 12L across 21 games — 0.81 PPG, with D-L-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Dibba Al-Fujairah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Jazira by 0.95 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Dibba Al-Fujairah heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al-Jazira have managed 6W 1D 3L from 10 games — 1.90 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dibba Al-Fujairah's away record stands at 1W 3D 6L across 10 trips, a 0.60 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Jazira come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Jazira are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Dibba Al-Fujairah are on 0.86 scored and 1.90 conceded.
Last 21 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Jazira
Blended
Dibba Al-Fujairah
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Jazira and Dibba Al-Fujairah in coming into this match?
Al-Jazira have gone 11W 4D 6L in their last 21 games (1.76 PPG), while Dibba Al-Fujairah have gone 4W 5D 12L in their last 21 (0.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Jazira at home or Dibba Al-Fujairah away?
Al-Jazira's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Jazira at home: 1.90 PPG; Dibba Al-Fujairah away: 0.60 PPG.
Have Al-Jazira or Dibba Al-Fujairah been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Jazira have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Dibba Al-Fujairah in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Al-Jazira go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Jazira have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Dibba Al-Fujairah — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Al-Jazira
0
Draws
0
Dibba Al-Fujairah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Jazira and Dibba Al-Fujairah?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Jazira have won 4, Dibba Al-Fujairah have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Jazira and Dibba Al-Fujairah last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Al-Jazira 4-3 Dibba Al-Fujairah.
Who has won more matches between Al-Jazira and Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Al-Jazira have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Jazira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Dibba Al-Fujairah see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Jazira 30%, Dibba Al-Fujairah 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Al-Jazira) and 50% (Dibba Al-Fujairah). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Jazira keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Al-Jazira have failed to score in 40% of games; Dibba Al-Fujairah in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Jazira home games / Dibba Al-Fujairah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Jazira play Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Al-Jazira's recent matches and 50% of Dibba Al-Fujairah's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Jazira vs Dibba Al-Fujairah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Al-Jazira's matches and 50% of Dibba Al-Fujairah's.
Do Al-Jazira and Dibba Al-Fujairah tend to score early?
Al-Jazira have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Dibba Al-Fujairah in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Jazira edge out Dibba Al-Fujairah 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Jazira beat Dibba Al-Fujairah 4-3 at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Jazira 2.48 xG and Dibba Al-Fujairah 0.65 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Al-Jazira beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Dibba Al-Fujairah outscored their 0.65 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Jazira attack 1.27 / defence 0.82 against Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.59 / defence 1.34, drawn from 47/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Jazira 77% | Draw 15% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 8%, with Al-Jazira to win its most likely call at 77%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Jazira 52%, Dibba Al-Fujairah 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Jazira's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Dibba Al-Fujairah's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Jazira arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 0.81. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Jazira (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dibba Al-Fujairah (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.70 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 2.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.