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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Al-Jazira run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Baniyas SC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Jazira beat Baniyas SC 4-1 at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Jazira 1.79 xG and Baniyas SC 1.36 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Al-Jazira beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Jazira attack 1.24 / defence 1.01 against Baniyas SC attack 0.93 / defence 0.97, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Jazira 46% | Draw 26% | Baniyas SC 28%, with Al-Jazira to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Jazira 57%, Baniyas SC 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Jazira's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Baniyas SC's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Jazira arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Jazira (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.72 average — above their attacking norm. Baniyas SC (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.72 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights