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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Al-Wasl FC defy the odds to beat Al-Jazira 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Wasl FC beat Al-Jazira 1-2 at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Jazira 2.15 xG and Al-Wasl FC 1.48 xG, a combined 3.63. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Al-Jazira fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Jazira attack 1.34 / defence 0.97 against Al-Wasl FC attack 1.05 / defence 1.10, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Jazira 52% | Draw 22% | Al-Wasl FC 25%, with Al-Jazira to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Al-Wasl FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Jazira 56%, Al-Wasl FC 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Jazira's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Wasl FC's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al-Jazira 1.56 PPG, Al-Wasl FC 1.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Wasl FC win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights