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Stalemate at Al-Ittihad Kalba's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium, Regular Season - 24, as Al-Ittihad Kalba and Khorfakkan drew 0-0 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.42 xG and Khorfakkan 1.94 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al-Ittihad Kalba fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Khorfakkan landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.89 / defence 1.19 against Khorfakkan attack 1.13 / defence 1.10, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad Kalba 28% | Draw 22% | Khorfakkan 50%, with Khorfakkan to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad Kalba 65%, Khorfakkan 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Khorfakkan's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.12 PPG, Khorfakkan 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al-Ittihad Kalba (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line. Khorfakkan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.08 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights