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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Al-Ittihad Kalba edge out Ajman 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Ittihad Kalba beat Ajman 3-2 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad Kalba 2.14 xG and Ajman 1.14 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Al-Ittihad Kalba beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ajman outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 1.11 / defence 0.94 against Ajman attack 0.81 / defence 1.06, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad Kalba 58% | Draw 24% | Ajman 18%, with Al-Ittihad Kalba to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad Kalba 69%, Ajman 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Ajman's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.11 PPG, Ajman 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Ittihad Kalba win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Ittihad Kalba (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.56 average — above their attacking norm. Ajman (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights