Al-Dhafra 1-3 Al Wahda FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al Wahda FC (64%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Dhafra face Al Wahda FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Al Dhafra Stadium plays host to Al-Dhafra versus Al Wahda FC in Pro League, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Friday 17 March 2023 at 16:30 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Dhafra's overall Pro League record this term: 1W 1D 8L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for Al-Dhafra, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Dhafra have posted 3W 1D 6L at Al Dhafra Stadium — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Al-Dhafra are significantly better at Al Dhafra Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al Wahda FC have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Al Wahda FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Wahda FC's away record: 8W 1D 1L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.50 exceeds their overall 1.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On a straight form reading, Al Wahda FC are the stronger side — 1.40 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Al Wahda FC hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 3 wins from 3 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2022, ended 2–4 with Al Wahda FC winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al Wahda FC have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 5.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Dhafra — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
Al Wahda FC — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Dhafra 49% versus Al Wahda FC 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Dhafra 49% | Al Wahda FC 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Dhafra 0.65 xG and Al Wahda FC 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Dhafra attack 0.698 / defence 1.153 | Al Wahda FC attack 1.027 / defence 0.617. League average goals — home 1.521 / away 1.484. Al-Dhafra's attack strength of 0.698 is below the league average — the 0.65 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al Wahda FC's defence strength of 0.617 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 45 Al-Dhafra games / 45 Al Wahda FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Dhafra 13% | Draw 23% | Al Wahda FC 64%. Fair-value odds: Al-Dhafra 7.69 | Draw 4.35 | Al Wahda FC 1.56. The model has a clear lean to Al Wahda FC (64%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Wahda FC are the pick at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.41 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 5.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates are neutral: Al-Dhafra 60% | Al Wahda FC 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Dhafra vs Al Wahda FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Al Dhafra Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 17 Mar 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Dhafra 13% | Draw 23% | Al Wahda FC 64% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 40% | xG Al-Dhafra 0.65 / Al Wahda FC 1.76 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Dhafra attack 0.698 / def 1.153 | Al Wahda FC attack 1.027 / def 0.617 | league avg home 1.521 / away 1.484 • Poisson stance: Al Wahda FC (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.65
Al-Dhafra xG
Expected Goals
1.76
Al Wahda FC xG
40%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Dhafra vs Al Wahda FC kick off?
Al-Dhafra vs Al Wahda FC kicked off at 16:30 on Friday 17 March 2023 at Al Dhafra Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Dhafra vs Al Wahda FC?
Al-Dhafra 1 - 3 Al Wahda FC.
Where is Al-Dhafra vs Al Wahda FC being played?
The match is being played at Al Dhafra Stadium.
What competition is Al-Dhafra vs Al Wahda FC part of?
Al-Dhafra vs Al Wahda FC is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Dhafra vs Al Wahda FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Dhafra a 13% chance of winning, Al Wahda FC a 64% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al Wahda FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Dhafra vs Al Wahda FC?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Al-Dhafra and Al Wahda FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Dhafra vs Al Wahda FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Dhafra and Al Wahda FC?
Record (3 meetings): Al-Dhafra 0W | Draws 0 | Al Wahda FC 3W.
What form are Al-Dhafra and Al Wahda FC in?
Al-Dhafra (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Al Wahda FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al-Dhafra's attack rating (0.70) and Al Wahda FC's defence rating (0.62), the model arrives at 0.65 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al Wahda FC's attack (1.03x) against Al-Dhafra's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.76.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-2 (13.8%), 1-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Wahda FC Win
13%
7.48
23%
4.42
64%
1.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
13.8%
Away win
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.65
Al-Dhafra xG
Total xG
2.41
1.76
Al Wahda FC xG
7.48
13%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
1.56
64%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
17%
5.80
52%
1.92
Win to Nil
2%
43.34
33%
3.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 15.8 | 13.8 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.3 | 9.1 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 1.9 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Dhafra vs Al Wahda FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Al-Dhafra and Al Wahda FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.65 expected goals for Al-Dhafra and 1.76 for Al Wahda FC, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Dhafra vs Al Wahda FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Dhafra come into this having played 45 games, going 7W 9D 29L for 0.67 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-D. The sample for Al-Dhafra is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Wahda FC sit at 2.00 PPG from 45 outings (26W 12D 7L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Al Wahda FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Wahda FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.33 PPG clear of Al-Dhafra — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Al-Dhafra's home form reads 5W 5D 12L across 22 games on their own ground, a 0.91 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Wahda FC have taken 2.27 points per game from 22 outings (15W 5D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Wahda FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Dhafra are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.91 conceded per game recently; Al Wahda FC are on 1.91 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Al Wahda FC in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Dhafra
Blended
Al Wahda FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Dhafra and Al Wahda FC in coming into this match?
Al-Dhafra have gone 7W 9D 29L in their last 45 games (0.67 PPG), while Al Wahda FC have gone 26W 12D 7L in their last 45 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Dhafra at home or Al Wahda FC away?
Al Wahda FC's away record (2.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Dhafra at home: 0.91 PPG; Al Wahda FC away: 2.27 PPG.
Have Al-Dhafra or Al Wahda FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Dhafra have kept a clean sheet in 4% of their recent games, Al Wahda FC in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Wahda FC won 5-2 on 19 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Dhafra have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al Wahda FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Al-Dhafra
0
Draws
5
Al Wahda FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Dhafra and Al Wahda FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Dhafra have won 1, Al Wahda FC have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Dhafra and Al Wahda FC last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Al-Dhafra 1-0 Al Wahda FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Dhafra and Al Wahda FC?
Al Wahda FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Dhafra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Al Wahda FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Dhafra 54%, Al Wahda FC 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Al-Dhafra) and 59% (Al Wahda FC).
On the defensive side: Al Wahda FC in 46%; Al-Dhafra have failed to score in 41% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Dhafra home games / Al Wahda FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Dhafra play Al Wahda FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Al-Dhafra's recent matches and 54% of Al Wahda FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Dhafra vs Al Wahda FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Al-Dhafra's recent games and 59% of Al Wahda FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Dhafra and Al Wahda FC tend to score early?
Al-Dhafra have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Al Wahda FC in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Wahda FC cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Al-Dhafra.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Wahda FC beat Al-Dhafra 1-3 at Al Dhafra Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Dhafra 0.65 xG and Al Wahda FC 1.76 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Al Wahda FC outscored their 1.76 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Dhafra attack 0.70 / defence 1.15 against Al Wahda FC attack 1.03 / defence 0.62, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Dhafra 13% | Draw 23% | Al Wahda FC 64%, with Al Wahda FC to win its most likely call at 64%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Dhafra 49%, Al Wahda FC 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Dhafra's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Al Wahda FC's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Wahda FC arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.67. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Dhafra (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Wahda FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.95 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.