Ajman 1-1 Al-Jazira – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Ajman at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ajman vs Al-Jazira fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Ajman Stadium plays host to Ajman versus Al-Jazira in Pro League, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Saturday 18 March 2023 at 13:45 UTC.
Current Form
Ajman's overall Pro League record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ajman, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Ajman Stadium, Ajman have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Jazira (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: D L W W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Jazira, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Jazira away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.90 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Ajman have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Al-Jazira in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Ajman 2W, Al-Jazira 1W, 0D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2022, ended 1–0 with Ajman winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Ajman half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Al-Jazira half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ajman 51% versus Al-Jazira 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ajman 58% | Al-Jazira 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ajman 1.92 xG and Al-Jazira 1.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ajman attack 1.200 / defence 1.043 | Al-Jazira attack 1.199 / defence 1.075. League average goals — home 1.491 / away 1.501. Data: 45 Ajman games / 45 Al-Jazira games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ajman 40% | Draw 21% | Al-Jazira 38%. Fair-value odds: Ajman 2.50 | Draw 4.76 | Al-Jazira 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 21% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.80. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.80 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (1.92 / 1.88) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Ajman as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.80 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 73% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 72% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ajman 60% | Al-Jazira 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ajman vs Al-Jazira | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Ajman Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Mar 2023, 13:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ajman 40% | Draw 21% | Al-Jazira 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 72% | xG Ajman 1.92 / Al-Jazira 1.88 • Poisson strength factors: Ajman attack 1.200 / def 1.043 | Al-Jazira attack 1.199 / def 1.075 | league avg home 1.491 / away 1.501 • Poisson stance: Ajman (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
Ajman xG
Expected Goals
1.88
Al-Jazira xG
72%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ajman vs Al-Jazira kick off?
Ajman vs Al-Jazira kicked off at 13:45 on Saturday 18 March 2023 at Ajman Stadium.
What was the final score in Ajman vs Al-Jazira?
Ajman 1 - 1 Al-Jazira.
Where is Ajman vs Al-Jazira being played?
The match is being played at Ajman Stadium.
What competition is Ajman vs Al-Jazira part of?
Ajman vs Al-Jazira is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Ajman vs Al-Jazira?
Our statistical model gives Ajman a 40% chance of winning, Al-Jazira a 38% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Ajman the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ajman vs Al-Jazira?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Ajman and Al-Jazira will score (BTTS).
Will Ajman vs Al-Jazira have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ajman and Al-Jazira?
Record (3 meetings): Ajman 2W | Draws 0 | Al-Jazira 1W.
What form are Ajman and Al-Jazira in?
Ajman (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Al-Jazira (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Ajman's attack rating (1.20) and Al-Jazira's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.92 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Jazira's attack (1.20x) against Ajman's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.88.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (7.8%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajman Win
40%
2.48
21%
4.70
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
Ajman xG
Total xG
3.80
1.88
Al-Jazira xG
2.48
40%
Home win
4.70
21%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.38
28%
BTTS No
3.62
Clean Sheet
15%
6.55
15%
6.85
Win to Nil
6%
16.27
6%
17.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 8.1 | 7.6 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.8 | 7.3 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ajman vs Al-Jazira?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are Ajman and Al-Jazira expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Ajman and 1.88 for Al-Jazira, a combined total of 3.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Ajman vs Al-Jazira?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 45 outings, Ajman have picked up 1.51 PPG on a 20W 8D 17L record — W-L-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Ajman is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Jazira's form line: 24W 6D 15L from 45 games, 1.73 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-L. The sample for Al-Jazira is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.51 PPG for Ajman against 1.73 for Al-Jazira. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Ajman have posted 1.64 PPG from 22 outings (10W 6D 6L).
On the road, Al-Jazira have gone 8W 4D 10L from 22 away games — 1.27 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.73 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al-Jazira's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ajman are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Al-Jazira are on 1.73 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ajman
Blended
Al-Jazira
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ajman and Al-Jazira in coming into this match?
Ajman have gone 20W 8D 17L in their last 45 games (1.51 PPG), while Al-Jazira have gone 24W 6D 15L in their last 45 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ajman at home or Al-Jazira away?
Ajman's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ajman at home: 1.64 PPG; Al-Jazira away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Ajman or Al-Jazira been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ajman have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Al-Jazira in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 5 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ajman won 1-5 on 8 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ajman have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Jazira — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Ajman
3
Draws
3
Al-Jazira
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ajman and Al-Jazira?
From 10 meetings on record, Ajman have won 4, Al-Jazira have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ajman and Al-Jazira last play each other?
They last met on 5 May 2026, when Ajman 1-1 Al-Jazira.
Who has won more matches between Ajman and Al-Jazira?
Ajman have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ajman are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Al-Jazira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ajman 59%, Al-Jazira 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Ajman) and 64% (Al-Jazira). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ajman home games / Al-Jazira away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ajman play Al-Jazira?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Ajman's games and 64% of Al-Jazira's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ajman vs Al-Jazira usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Ajman's matches and 64% of Al-Jazira's.
Do Ajman and Al-Jazira tend to score early?
Ajman have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Al-Jazira in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ajman and Al-Jazira share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Ajman Stadium, Regular Season - 20, as Ajman and Al-Jazira drew 1-1 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajman 1.92 xG and Al-Jazira 1.88 xG, a combined 3.80. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Ajman fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Al-Jazira landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajman attack 1.20 / defence 1.04 against Al-Jazira attack 1.20 / defence 1.07, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ajman 40% | Draw 21% | Al-Jazira 38%, with Ajman to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajman 58%, Al-Jazira 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ajman's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Jazira's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ajman 1.51 PPG, Al-Jazira 1.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.