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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Al Bataeh edge out Khorfakkan 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Bataeh beat Khorfakkan 2-1 at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Bataeh 1.62 xG and Khorfakkan 1.48 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Bataeh attack 0.93 / defence 1.09 against Khorfakkan attack 0.99 / defence 1.20, drawn from 27/27 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Al Bataeh 41% | Draw 24% | Khorfakkan 35%, with Al Bataeh to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Bataeh 59%, Khorfakkan 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Bataeh's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Khorfakkan's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al Bataeh 1.00 PPG, Khorfakkan 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Bataeh win broke the near-deadlock. Al Bataeh (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.08 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights