Al Bataeh 2-1 Khorfakkan – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Al Bataeh at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Bataeh vs Khorfakkan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Khorfakkan make the trip to Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium to face Al Bataeh in Pro League, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Sunday 24 August 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Al Bataeh's overall Pro League record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al Bataeh have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Bataeh's home record at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Pro League appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Khorfakkan have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D D L L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Khorfakkan have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Khorfakkan's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Al Bataeh against 1.50 for Khorfakkan. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Al Bataeh have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Khorfakkan in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Al Bataeh 2W, Khorfakkan 2W, 2D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Al Bataeh — key trading statistics (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Khorfakkan — key trading statistics (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Bataeh 63% and Khorfakkan 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Bataeh 59% | Khorfakkan 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Bataeh 1.62 xG and Khorfakkan 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Bataeh attack 0.932 / defence 1.086 | Khorfakkan attack 0.991 / defence 1.203. League average goals — home 1.445 / away 1.370. Khorfakkan bring a strong defensive rating of 1.203 — this is suppressing Al Bataeh's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 27 Al Bataeh games / 27 Khorfakkan games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al Bataeh 41% | Draw 24% | Khorfakkan 35%. Fair-value odds: Al Bataeh 2.44 | Draw 4.17 | Khorfakkan 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.62 / 1.48) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al Bataeh as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Bataeh if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.09 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al Bataeh 60% | Khorfakkan 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (27 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Bataeh vs Khorfakkan | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Aug 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Bataeh 41% | Draw 24% | Khorfakkan 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Al Bataeh 1.62 / Khorfakkan 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Al Bataeh attack 0.932 / def 1.086 | Khorfakkan attack 0.991 / def 1.203 | league avg home 1.445 / away 1.370 • Poisson stance: Al Bataeh (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Al Bataeh xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Khorfakkan xG
62%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Bataeh vs Khorfakkan kick off?
Al Bataeh vs Khorfakkan kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 24 August 2025 at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Bataeh vs Khorfakkan?
Al Bataeh 2 - 1 Khorfakkan.
Where is Al Bataeh vs Khorfakkan being played?
The match is being played at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium.
What competition is Al Bataeh vs Khorfakkan part of?
Al Bataeh vs Khorfakkan is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Bataeh vs Khorfakkan?
Our statistical model gives Al Bataeh a 41% chance of winning, Khorfakkan a 35% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al Bataeh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Bataeh vs Khorfakkan?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Al Bataeh and Khorfakkan will score (BTTS).
Will Al Bataeh vs Khorfakkan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Bataeh and Khorfakkan?
Record (6 meetings): Al Bataeh 2W | Draws 2 | Khorfakkan 2W.
What form are Al Bataeh and Khorfakkan in?
Al Bataeh (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Khorfakkan (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al Bataeh's attack at 0.93x the league average against Khorfakkan's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Khorfakkan's attack (0.99x) against Al Bataeh's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.48.
The sample (27/27 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Bataeh Win
41%
2.43
24%
4.20
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Al Bataeh xG
Total xG
3.09
1.48
Khorfakkan xG
2.43
41%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
23%
4.37
20%
5.05
Win to Nil
9%
10.61
7%
14.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 6.7 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 10.8 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.8 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.7 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Bataeh vs Khorfakkan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Al Bataeh and Khorfakkan expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Al Bataeh and 1.48 for Khorfakkan, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Bataeh vs Khorfakkan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al Bataeh come into this having played 27 games, going 7W 6D 14L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Al Bataeh, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Khorfakkan sit at 1.33 PPG from 27 outings (10W 6D 11L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Khorfakkan, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Al Bataeh against 1.33 for Khorfakkan. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Al Bataeh's home form reads 2W 4D 7L across 13 games on their own ground, a 0.77 PPG return.
Away from home, Khorfakkan have taken 1.23 points per game from 13 outings (5W 1D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Khorfakkan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al Bataeh are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Khorfakkan are on 1.63 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Bataeh have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Khorfakkan in 67%.
Last 27 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Bataeh
Early Season
Khorfakkan
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Bataeh and Khorfakkan in coming into this match?
Al Bataeh have gone 7W 6D 14L in their last 27 games (1.00 PPG), while Khorfakkan have gone 10W 6D 11L in their last 27 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Bataeh at home or Khorfakkan away?
Khorfakkan's away record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Bataeh at home: 0.77 PPG; Khorfakkan away: 1.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Khorfakkan won 3-0 on 8 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Bataeh have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Khorfakkan — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Al Bataeh
3
Draws
2
Khorfakkan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Bataeh and Khorfakkan?
From 8 meetings on record, Al Bataeh have won 3, Khorfakkan have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al Bataeh and Khorfakkan last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Khorfakkan 1-1 Al Bataeh.
Who has won more matches between Al Bataeh and Khorfakkan?
Al Bataeh have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Bataeh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Khorfakkan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 62% for Al Bataeh, 69% for Khorfakkan — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Al Bataeh and 77% for Khorfakkan. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 69% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Bataeh home games / Khorfakkan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Bataeh play Khorfakkan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Al Bataeh's games and 69% of Khorfakkan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Bataeh vs Khorfakkan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Al Bataeh's matches and 77% of Khorfakkan's.
Do Al Bataeh and Khorfakkan tend to score early?
Al Bataeh have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Khorfakkan in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Bataeh edge out Khorfakkan 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Bataeh beat Khorfakkan 2-1 at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Bataeh 1.62 xG and Khorfakkan 1.48 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Bataeh attack 0.93 / defence 1.09 against Khorfakkan attack 0.99 / defence 1.20, drawn from 27/27 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al Bataeh 41% | Draw 24% | Khorfakkan 35%, with Al Bataeh to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Bataeh 59%, Khorfakkan 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Bataeh's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Khorfakkan's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Bataeh 1.00 PPG, Khorfakkan 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Bataeh win broke the near-deadlock. Al Bataeh (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.