Al Bataeh 1-3 Al Wahda FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Wahda FC at 50% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al Bataeh face Al Wahda FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Al Wahda FC travel to Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium to take on Al Bataeh in Pro League (matchday 26). The game is scheduled for Sunday 25 May 2025 at 16:10 UK time.
Form Guide
Al Bataeh — last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, Al Bataeh have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.90 lags behind their overall 1.60 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Al Wahda FC stand at 5W 5D 0L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D D W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Al Wahda FC have posted 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al Bataeh at 1.60 PPG versus Al Wahda FC's 2.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Al Bataeh have won 2, Al Wahda FC 3, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 23 Jan 2025, ended Al Bataeh 2–0 Al Wahda FC — a Al Bataeh win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Al Bataeh in-play tendencies (last 51 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Al Wahda FC in-play tendencies (last 51 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Bataeh 67% and Al Wahda FC 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Bataeh 63% | Al Wahda FC 63%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Al Bataeh surrender their half-time lead 43% of the time, while Al Wahda FC have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 46% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Al Wahda FC surrender HT leads in 30% of cases while Al Bataeh recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 36% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Bataeh 0.99 xG and Al Wahda FC 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Bataeh attack 0.790 / defence 1.053 | Al Wahda FC attack 0.992 / defence 0.824. League average goals — home 1.515 / away 1.501. Al Bataeh's attack rating of 0.790 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.99. Data: built from Al Bataeh's last 51 games and Al Wahda FC's last 51.
Result probabilities: Al Bataeh 23% | Draw 26% | Al Wahda FC 50%. Fair-value odds: Al Bataeh 4.28 | Draw 3.82 | Al Wahda FC 1.98. Al Wahda FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Wahda FC are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Wahda FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.56 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 53% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Al Bataeh 60% (last 10 home games) | Al Wahda FC 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Bataeh vs Al Wahda FC | Competition: Pro League, matchday 26 | Venue: Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 25 May 2025 at 16:10 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Bataeh 23% | Draw 26% | Al Wahda FC 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Al Bataeh 0.99 / Al Wahda FC 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Al Bataeh attack 0.790 / def 1.053 | Al Wahda FC attack 0.992 / def 0.824 | league avg home 1.515 / away 1.501 • Poisson stance: Al Wahda FC (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Al Bataeh xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Al Wahda FC xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al Bataeh vs Al Wahda FC FAQs
What time does Al Bataeh vs Al Wahda FC kick off?
Al Bataeh vs Al Wahda FC kicked off at 16:10 UK time on Sunday 25 May 2025 at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Bataeh vs Al Wahda FC?
Al Bataeh 1 - 3 Al Wahda FC.
Where is Al Bataeh vs Al Wahda FC being played?
The match is being played at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium.
What competition is Al Bataeh vs Al Wahda FC part of?
Al Bataeh vs Al Wahda FC is a Pro League fixture (matchday 26) (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Bataeh vs Al Wahda FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Bataeh a 23% chance of winning, Al Wahda FC a 50% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al Wahda FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Bataeh vs Al Wahda FC?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Al Bataeh and Al Wahda FC will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Al Bataeh vs Al Wahda FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al Bataeh's attack rating (0.79) and Al Wahda FC's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 0.99 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Wahda FC's attack versus Al Bataeh's defence, projects 1.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al Bataeh's last 51 games and Al Wahda FC's last 51 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.6%), 0-2 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Wahda FC Win
23%
4.28
26%
3.82
50%
1.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
0 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Al Bataeh xG
Total xG
2.56
1.57
Al Wahda FC xG
4.28
23%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
1.98
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
21%
4.80
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
5%
20.55
19%
5.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 12.2 | 9.6 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 12.0 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 5.9 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al Bataeh vs Al Wahda FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Bataeh vs Al Wahda FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Al Bataeh and Al Wahda FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Al Bataeh and 1.57 for Al Wahda FC, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Bataeh vs Al Wahda FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Bataeh come into this having played 51 games, going 17W 13D 21L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-W.
On the other side, Al Wahda FC sit at 1.71 PPG from 51 outings (24W 15D 12L), a run that reads D-D-W-W-D across their last five.
Al Wahda FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.46 PPG clear of Al Bataeh — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Al Bataeh's home form reads 6W 8D 11L across their last 25 home games, a 1.04 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Wahda FC have taken 1.56 points per game from their last 25 away games (11W 6D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Wahda FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Bataeh are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Al Wahda FC are on 1.82 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Bataeh have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Al Wahda FC in 63%.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Bataeh
Blended
Al Wahda FC
Blended
Al Bataeh (Home) vs Al Wahda FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al Bataeh
Blended
Al Wahda FC
Blended
❓ Al Bataeh vs Al Wahda FC Form FAQs
What form are Al Bataeh and Al Wahda FC in coming into this match?
Al Bataeh have gone 17W 13D 21L in their last 51 games (1.25 PPG), while Al Wahda FC have gone 24W 15D 12L in their last 51 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Bataeh at home or Al Wahda FC away?
Al Wahda FC's away record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Bataeh at home: 1.04 PPG; Al Wahda FC away: 1.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from October 2022. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 5 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 2 Oct 2022, when Al Wahda FC won Al Bataeh 0-4 Al Wahda FC.
Al Bataeh's record when hosting Al Wahda FC specifically: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Al Bataeh
1
Draws
5
Al Wahda FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Al Bataeh vs Al Wahda FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al Bataeh and Al Wahda FC?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Al Bataeh have won 2, Al Wahda FC have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Al Bataeh and Al Wahda FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 February 2026: Al Wahda FC 2-2 Al Bataeh.
Who has won more matches between Al Bataeh and Al Wahda FC?
Al Wahda FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Bataeh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 71% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Al Wahda FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Bataeh 72%, Al Wahda FC 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Al Bataeh) and 52% (Al Wahda FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Wahda FC in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Bataeh home games / Al Wahda FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al Bataeh vs Al Wahda FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al Bataeh and Al Wahda FC matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Al Bataeh's games and 52% of Al Wahda FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Al Bataeh and Al Wahda FC matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Al Bataeh's matches and 52% of Al Wahda FC's.
Do Al Bataeh and Al Wahda FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Al Bataeh's recent matches and 80% of Al Wahda FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Wahda FC cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Al Bataeh.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Wahda FC beat Al Bataeh 1-3 at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Bataeh 0.99 xG and Al Wahda FC 1.57 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Al Wahda FC outscored their 1.57 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Bataeh attack 0.79 / defence 1.05 against Al Wahda FC attack 0.99 / defence 0.82, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Bataeh 23% | Draw 26% | Al Wahda FC 50%, with Al Wahda FC to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Bataeh 63%, Al Wahda FC 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Bataeh's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Al Wahda FC's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Wahda FC arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.25. That form edge translated into the three points. Al Bataeh (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Wahda FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.64 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.