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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson rates Ajman at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ajman vs Khorfakkan encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 26 as Ajman welcome Khorfakkan to Ajman Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 25 May 2025 at 17:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Pro League games this season, Ajman have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ajman, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Ajman at Ajman Stadium this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Khorfakkan stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D L D D L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Khorfakkan, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Khorfakkan's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Khorfakkan — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Ajman register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Khorfakkan in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Ajman have won 3, Khorfakkan 1, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Jan 2025, ended 2–0 with Ajman winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Ajman trading profile (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.

Khorfakkan trading profile (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ajman 61% and Khorfakkan 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ajman 57% | Khorfakkan 69%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ajman 2.21 xG and Khorfakkan 1.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ajman attack 1.135 / defence 1.257 | Khorfakkan attack 0.945 / defence 1.257. League average goals — home 1.551 / away 1.512. Khorfakkan bring a strong defensive rating of 1.257 — this is suppressing Ajman's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 51 Ajman games / 51 Khorfakkan games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Ajman 48% | Draw 21% | Khorfakkan 32%. Fair-value odds: Ajman 2.08 | Draw 4.76 | Khorfakkan 3.12. Ajman hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 75% | Total xG 4.01. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 4.01 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 75% reflects that both xG figures (2.21 / 1.80) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Ajman dominate the H2H record, yet Khorfakkan are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.

Poisson rates Ajman as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Khorfakkan (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 4.01 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 76% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 75% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Ajman 80% | Khorfakkan 60% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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