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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Al Bataeh edge out Al Urooba 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Bataeh beat Al Urooba 1-0 at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Bataeh 2.21 xG and Al Urooba 1.08 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al Bataeh fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Al Urooba landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Bataeh attack 0.80 / defence 1.39 against Al Urooba attack 0.53 / defence 1.42, drawn from 37/11 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Bataeh 61% | Draw 24% | Al Urooba 15%, with Al Bataeh to win its most likely call at 61%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 77% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Bataeh 82%, Al Urooba 73%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Bataeh's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.

Al Urooba's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al Bataeh 0.45 PPG, Al Urooba 0.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Bataeh win broke the near-deadlock. Al Bataeh (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line. Al Urooba (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 3.20 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights