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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al Bataeh and Al-Ittihad Kalba share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Bataeh and Al-Ittihad Kalba finished level at 2-2 at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Bataeh 1.32 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.26 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Bataeh attack 0.73 / defence 1.03 against Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.90 / defence 1.29, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Bataeh 38% | Draw 27% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 35%, with Al Bataeh to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Bataeh 50%, Al-Ittihad Kalba 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Bataeh's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al Bataeh 0.96 PPG, Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al Bataeh (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights