Al Bataeh vs Al-Ittihad Kalba – Match Report

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Stalemate at Al Bataeh's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium, Regular Season - 18, as Al Bataeh and Al-Ittihad Kalba drew 0-0 in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Bataeh 1.43 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.87 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al Bataeh fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Al-Ittihad Kalba landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Bataeh attack 0.84 / defence 1.34 against Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.96 / defence 1.04, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Bataeh 30% | Draw 22% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 48%, with Al-Ittihad Kalba to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Bataeh 70%, Al-Ittihad Kalba 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Bataeh's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.

Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al Bataeh 1.21 PPG, Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al Bataeh (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.14 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Ittihad Kalba (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights