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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al Bataeh and Al-Dhafra share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Bataeh and Al-Dhafra finished level at 1-1 at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Bataeh 1.55 xG and Al-Dhafra 1.66 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Bataeh attack 0.82 / defence 1.28 against Al-Dhafra attack 0.92 / defence 1.47, drawn from 41/15 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Bataeh 36% | Draw 23% | Al-Dhafra 41%, with Al-Dhafra to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Bataeh 53%, Al-Dhafra 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Bataeh's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Dhafra's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al Bataeh 0.80 PPG, Al-Dhafra 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al Bataeh (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Dhafra (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.57 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights