Al Bataeh 0-2 Al Ain – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Al Ain (58%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Al Bataeh face Al Ain.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al Bataeh host Al Ain at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium in Pro League (matchday 23). Kick-off is Thursday 23 April 2026 at 18:45 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Al Bataeh have gone 1W 7D 2L — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L W D D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Al Bataeh's home record over their last 10 home games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Al Ain stand at 8W 2D 0L — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Al Ain's form when playing away from home: 8W 2D 0L across their last 10 road games (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al Ain — 1.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.60 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
Despite the home advantage, Al Ain have the better record in our head-to-head data — 5 wins from 7 H2H matches against 1 for Al Bataeh.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.3 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 16 Aug 2025, ended Al Bataeh 1–2 Al Ain — a Al Ain win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Al Ain have won 5 of 7 H2H matches, and at 4.3 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading Patterns
Al Bataeh in-play and half-time data (last 48 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 60%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Al Ain in-play and half-time data (last 48 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 62%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Bataeh 60% versus Al Ain 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Bataeh 50% | Al Ain 62%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Al Bataeh surrender their half-time lead 60% of the time, while Al Ain have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 62% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Bataeh 0.95 xG and Al Ain 1.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Bataeh attack 0.785 / defence 1.069 | Al Ain attack 1.235 / defence 0.852. League average goals — home 1.424 / away 1.397. Al Bataeh's attack rating of 0.785 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.95. Al Ain have an above-average attack rating of 1.235, which lifts their away xG to 1.84. Data: built from Al Bataeh's last 48 games and Al Ain's last 48.
Result probabilities: Al Bataeh 19% | Draw 23% | Al Ain 58%. Fair-value odds: Al Bataeh 5.26 | Draw 4.39 | Al Ain 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Al Ain (58%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Ain are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.80 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Al Bataeh's last 10 home games and Al Ain's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.3 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al Bataeh 50% (last 10 home games) | Al Ain 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Bataeh vs Al Ain | Competition: Pro League, matchday 23 | Venue: Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 23 April 2026 at 18:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Bataeh 19% | Draw 23% | Al Ain 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Al Bataeh 0.95 / Al Ain 1.84 • Poisson strength factors: Al Bataeh attack 0.785 / def 1.069 | Al Ain attack 1.235 / def 0.852 | league avg home 1.424 / away 1.397 • Poisson stance: Al Ain (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Al Bataeh xG
Expected Goals
1.84
Al Ain xG
52%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al Bataeh vs Al Ain FAQs
What time does Al Bataeh vs Al Ain kick off?
Al Bataeh vs Al Ain kicked off at 18:45 UK time on Thursday 23 April 2026 at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Bataeh vs Al Ain?
Al Bataeh 0 - 2 Al Ain.
Where is Al Bataeh vs Al Ain being played?
The match is being played at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium.
What competition is Al Bataeh vs Al Ain part of?
Al Bataeh vs Al Ain is a Pro League fixture (matchday 23) (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Bataeh vs Al Ain?
Our statistical model gives Al Bataeh a 19% chance of winning, Al Ain a 58% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al Ain the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Bataeh vs Al Ain?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Al Bataeh and Al Ain will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al Bataeh vs Al Ain have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al Bataeh's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Al Ain's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.95. The same calculation in reverse, Al Ain's attack versus Al Bataeh's defence, projects 1.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al Bataeh's last 48 games and Al Ain's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.4%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Ain Win
19%
5.26
23%
4.39
58%
1.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
0 – 2
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Al Bataeh xG
Total xG
2.80
1.84
Al Ain xG
5.26
19%
Home win
4.39
23%
Draw
1.72
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
16%
6.33
39%
2.59
Win to Nil
3%
33.27
22%
4.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 11.2 | 10.4 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.7 | 9.9 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al Bataeh vs Al Ain Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Bataeh vs Al Ain?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Al Bataeh and Al Ain expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Al Bataeh and 1.84 for Al Ain, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Bataeh vs Al Ain?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 48 outings, Al Bataeh have picked up 0.96 PPG on a 11W 13D 24L record — L-W-D-D-D across the most recent five.
Al Ain's form line: 29W 13D 6L from 48 games, 2.08 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Al Ain are the form team by 1.12 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Bataeh.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al Bataeh have posted 0.79 PPG from their last 24 home games (4W 7D 13L).
On the road, Al Ain have gone 14W 6D 4L from their last 24 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Ain come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al Bataeh are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Al Ain are on 2.12 scored and 1.04 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Bataeh have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al Ain in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Bataeh
Blended
Al Ain
Blended
Al Bataeh (Home) vs Al Ain (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al Bataeh
Blended
Al Ain
Blended
❓ Al Bataeh vs Al Ain Form FAQs
What form are Al Bataeh and Al Ain in coming into this match?
Al Bataeh have gone 11W 13D 24L in their last 48 games (0.96 PPG), while Al Ain have gone 29W 13D 6L in their last 48 (2.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Bataeh at home or Al Ain away?
Al Ain's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Bataeh at home: 0.79 PPG; Al Ain away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Al Bataeh or Al Ain been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Bataeh have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Al Ain in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to January 2023. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 23 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al Ain have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 12 May 2023, when Al Ain won Al Ain 5-2 Al Bataeh.
Al Bataeh's record when hosting Al Ain specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Al Bataeh
1
Draws
6
Al Ain
Recent Meetings
❓ Al Bataeh vs Al Ain H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al Bataeh and Al Ain?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Al Bataeh have won 1, Al Ain have won 6, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Al Bataeh and Al Ain last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 April 2026: Al Bataeh 0-2 Al Ain.
Who has won more matches between Al Bataeh and Al Ain?
Al Ain have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Bataeh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Al Ain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Bataeh 58%, Al Ain 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for Al Bataeh and 71% for Al Ain. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Ain in 33%; Al Bataeh have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Bataeh home games / Al Ain away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al Bataeh vs Al Ain Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al Bataeh and Al Ain matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Al Bataeh's games and 62% of Al Ain's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Al Bataeh and Al Ain matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Al Bataeh's matches and 71% of Al Ain's.
Do Al Bataeh and Al Ain matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Al Bataeh's recent matches and 62% of Al Ain's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Ain cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Al Bataeh.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Ain beat Al Bataeh 0-2 at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Bataeh 0.95 xG and Al Ain 1.84 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Al Bataeh fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Bataeh attack 0.79 / defence 1.07 against Al Ain attack 1.24 / defence 0.85, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Bataeh 19% | Draw 23% | Al Ain 58%, with Al Ain to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Bataeh 50%, Al Ain 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Bataeh's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al Ain's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Ain arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 0.96. Form held, and they took the win. Al Bataeh (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward. Al Ain (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.