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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Khorfakkan defy the odds to beat Ajman 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Khorfakkan beat Ajman 1-2 at Ajman Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajman 1.67 xG and Khorfakkan 1.06 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Khorfakkan outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajman attack 1.00 / defence 1.01 against Khorfakkan attack 0.88 / defence 1.28, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ajman 52% | Draw 24% | Khorfakkan 24%, with Ajman to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Khorfakkan win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajman 52%, Khorfakkan 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ajman's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Khorfakkan's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Ajman 1.29 PPG, Khorfakkan 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Khorfakkan win broke the near-deadlock. Ajman (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Khorfakkan (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.47 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights