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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson model favours Ajman (52%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Ajman face Khorfakkan.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 6 as Ajman welcome Khorfakkan to Ajman Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 18 October 2025 at 16:45 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Pro League games this season, Ajman have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Ajman have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Ajman at Ajman Stadium this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Khorfakkan stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 3.10. Conceding 3.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Khorfakkan have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Khorfakkan's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.

On current form, Ajman have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

Head to Head

Ajman hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 8 previous encounters compared to 1 for Khorfakkan, with 3 draws in between.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 25 May 2025, ended 4–1 with Ajman winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Ajman and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

In-Play Data

Ajman trading profile (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.

Khorfakkan trading profile (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ajman 52% versus Khorfakkan 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ajman 52% | Khorfakkan 68%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ajman 1.67 xG and Khorfakkan 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ajman attack 0.996 / defence 1.010 | Khorfakkan attack 0.883 / defence 1.284. League average goals — home 1.308 / away 1.193. Khorfakkan bring a strong defensive rating of 1.284 — this is suppressing Ajman's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 31 Ajman games / 31 Khorfakkan games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Ajman 52% | Draw 24% | Khorfakkan 24%. Fair-value odds: Ajman 1.92 | Draw 4.17 | Khorfakkan 4.17. Ajman hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Ajman as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ajman offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Ajman 80% | Khorfakkan 50% BTTS from recent games.

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