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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Ajman run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Khorfakkan.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ajman beat Khorfakkan 4-1 at Ajman Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajman 2.21 xG and Khorfakkan 1.80 xG, a combined 4.01. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Ajman beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajman attack 1.14 / defence 1.26 against Khorfakkan attack 0.94 / defence 1.26, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ajman 48% | Draw 21% | Khorfakkan 32%, with Ajman to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 57% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 75% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajman 57%, Khorfakkan 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ajman's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Khorfakkan's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Ajman 1.18 PPG, Khorfakkan 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ajman win broke the near-deadlock. Ajman (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.64 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line. Khorfakkan (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights