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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al-Wasl FC cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Ajman.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Wasl FC beat Ajman 1-3 at Ajman Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajman 1.38 xG and Al-Wasl FC 1.06 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Al-Wasl FC outscored their 1.06 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajman attack 0.86 / defence 0.96 against Al-Wasl FC attack 0.81 / defence 1.11, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ajman 44% | Draw 27% | Al-Wasl FC 29%, with Ajman to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Al-Wasl FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajman 49%, Al-Wasl FC 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ajman's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Wasl FC's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Wasl FC arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.17. Form held, and they took the win. Ajman (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Wasl FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights