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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Ajman and Al Nasr share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ajman and Al Nasr finished level at 2-2 at Ajman Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajman 1.03 xG and Al Nasr 1.33 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Ajman beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajman attack 0.84 / defence 1.02 against Al Nasr attack 0.90 / defence 0.85, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ajman 27% | Draw 31% | Al Nasr 42%, with Al Nasr to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajman 47%, Al Nasr 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ajman's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Al Nasr's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Ajman 1.22 PPG, Al Nasr 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights