Ajman 2-3 Al-Ittihad Kalba – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Ajman at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ajman vs Al-Ittihad Kalba encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Al-Ittihad Kalba travel to Ajman Stadium to take on Ajman. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 13 May 2025, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Ajman have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ajman, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ajman's home record at Ajman Stadium: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Ajman are significantly better at Ajman Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ittihad Kalba stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad Kalba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Ajman 1.10 PPG, Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 4 wins for Ajman, 2 for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 4.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 Jan 2025, ended 2–3 with Al-Ittihad Kalba winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Ajman trading profile (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Al-Ittihad Kalba trading profile (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ajman 61% and Al-Ittihad Kalba 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ajman 57% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ajman 1.76 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ajman attack 1.145 / defence 1.233 | Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.923 / defence 1.007. League average goals — home 1.528 / away 1.383. Data: 49 Ajman games / 49 Al-Ittihad Kalba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ajman 43% | Draw 23% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 35%. Fair-value odds: Ajman 2.33 | Draw 4.35 | Al-Ittihad Kalba 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.76 / 1.57) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ajman as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ajman offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.34 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: Ajman 80% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ajman vs Al-Ittihad Kalba | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Ajman Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 13 May 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ajman 43% | Draw 23% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 66% | xG Ajman 1.76 / Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Ajman attack 1.145 / def 1.233 | Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.923 / def 1.007 | league avg home 1.528 / away 1.383 • Poisson stance: Ajman (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Ajman xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ajman vs Al-Ittihad Kalba kick off?
Ajman vs Al-Ittihad Kalba kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 13 May 2025 at Ajman Stadium.
What was the final score in Ajman vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Ajman 2 - 3 Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Where is Ajman vs Al-Ittihad Kalba being played?
The match is being played at Ajman Stadium.
What competition is Ajman vs Al-Ittihad Kalba part of?
Ajman vs Al-Ittihad Kalba is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Ajman vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our statistical model gives Ajman a 43% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad Kalba a 35% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Ajman the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ajman vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Ajman and Al-Ittihad Kalba will score (BTTS).
Will Ajman vs Al-Ittihad Kalba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ajman and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Record (6 meetings): Ajman 4W | Draws 0 | Al-Ittihad Kalba 2W.
What form are Ajman and Al-Ittihad Kalba in?
Ajman (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. Al-Ittihad Kalba (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Ajman's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Al-Ittihad Kalba's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.76. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ittihad Kalba's attack versus Ajman's defence, projects 1.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajman Win
43%
2.35
23%
4.39
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Ajman xG
Total xG
3.34
1.57
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
2.35
43%
Home win
4.39
23%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.91
Clean Sheet
21%
4.83
17%
5.83
Win to Nil
9%
11.36
6%
16.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 5.6 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 9.9 | 7.8 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.7 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 5.1 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ajman vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Ajman and Al-Ittihad Kalba expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Ajman and 1.57 for Al-Ittihad Kalba, a combined total of 3.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Ajman vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ajman's recent record stands at 15W 14D 20L from 49 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with L-D-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Ajman is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ittihad Kalba, meanwhile, have gone 13W 15D 21L across 49 games — 1.10 PPG, with L-L-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Al-Ittihad Kalba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ajman on 1.20 PPG, Al-Ittihad Kalba on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Ajman have managed 8W 6D 10L from 24 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's away record stands at 6W 8D 10L across 24 trips, a 1.08 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Ajman are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad Kalba are on 1.45 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ajman have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Al-Ittihad Kalba in 67%.
Last 49 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ajman
Blended
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ajman and Al-Ittihad Kalba in coming into this match?
Ajman have gone 15W 14D 20L in their last 49 games (1.20 PPG), while Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 13W 15D 21L in their last 49 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ajman at home or Al-Ittihad Kalba away?
Ajman's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ajman at home: 1.25 PPG; Al-Ittihad Kalba away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ajman and Al-Ittihad Kalba runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 11 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ajman's record when hosting Al-Ittihad Kalba specifically: 2W 0D 4L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Ajman
0
Draws
5
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ajman and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
From 10 meetings on record, Ajman have won 5, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ajman and Al-Ittihad Kalba last play each other?
They last met on 11 September 2026, when Ajman 2-3 Al-Ittihad Kalba.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ajman are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Al-Ittihad Kalba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Ajman at 62%, Al-Ittihad Kalba at 71%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Ajman and 67% for Al-Ittihad Kalba. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ajman home games / Al-Ittihad Kalba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ajman play Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Ajman's games and 71% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ajman vs Al-Ittihad Kalba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Ajman's matches and 67% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's.
Do Ajman and Al-Ittihad Kalba tend to score early?
Ajman have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad Kalba in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Ittihad Kalba defy the odds to beat Ajman 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad Kalba beat Ajman 2-3 at Ajman Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajman 1.76 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.57 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Al-Ittihad Kalba outscored their 1.57 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajman attack 1.15 / defence 1.23 against Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.92 / defence 1.01, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ajman 43% | Draw 23% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 35%, with Ajman to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Al-Ittihad Kalba win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajman 57%, Al-Ittihad Kalba 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ajman's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ajman 1.20 PPG, Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Ittihad Kalba win broke the near-deadlock. Ajman (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Ittihad Kalba (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.46 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.