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Under 2.5 Goals Predictions

Fixtures ranked by highest under 2.5 probability — Sunday 23 July 2023

Thu 20 Fri 21 Sat 22 Sun 23 Mon 24 Tue 25 Wed 26

Under 2.5 goals lands when a match produces 2 goals or fewer. Our prediction model sums the probability of every scoreline with 2 goals or fewer — 0–0, 1–0, 1–1, 2–0 and their mirror images. Only fixtures with 55%+ probability are shown.

The model shortlists eleven fixtures on Sunday 23 July 2023. Cruzeiro vs Goias led the list at 74% in the Serie A. The shortlist runs from 74% down to 56%, which is a meaningful spread across a single day.

Serie A supplies three of the top 10, which is worth noting if you are spreading selections across leagues.

Of the eleven fixtures on this list that have since finished, five landed the under 2.5 goals market — 45%. This is a single day's sample and swings heavily; the rolling record across all fixtures is on the model accuracy page.

Model output for information only — not betting advice. See the model's accuracy record.

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Serie A · Brazil 74%

✓ Under 2.5 74% ✓ BTTS No 65%

Eliteserien · Norway 68%

Under 2.5 68% BTTS No 60%

Serie A · Brazil 67%

✓ Under 2.5 67% ✓ BTTS No 59%

Primera División · Chile 66%

✓ Under 2.5 66% ✓ BTTS No 58%

Serie A · Brazil 63%

✓ Under 2.5 63% ✓ BTTS No 60%

Primera División · Chile 59%

Under 2.5 59% BTTS No 53%

Ekstraklasa · Poland 59%

Under 2.5 59% BTTS No 56%

Veikkausliiga · Finland 59%

Under 2.5 59% BTTS No 61% VPS Clean Sheet 54%

Primera División · Chile 57%

#10

Eliteserien · Norway 56%

#11

Eliteserien · Norway 56%

Showing top 11 fixtures by under 2.5 probability (a 55% or higher under 2.5 probability). Predictions are generated by our prediction model and updated daily. For informational purposes only.

Related markets

Low Scoring Both Teams to Score – No Over 2.5 Goals

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Under 2.5 Goals — common questions

What does the Under 2.5 Goals market mean?

Under 2.5 Goals settles on whether a match finishes with 2 or fewer total goals. It is one of the most commonly offered football markets and is priced by every major bookmaker.

How does Fixture360 calculate under 2.5 goals probability?

Our Poisson model estimates each team's expected goals from their attack and defence strengths, then builds a probability for every possible scoreline. The under 2.5 probability shown here is the probability of 2 or fewer total goals, summed across every scoreline in the model's matrix. No bookmaker odds are used as an input — the model is independent of the market.

How many fixtures qualified for Under 2.5 Goals on Sunday 23 July 2023?

eleven fixtures met the criteria, led by Cruzeiro vs Goias at 74% under 2.5 probability.

Which fixtures appear on this page?

Fixtures with a 55% or higher under 2.5 probability, ranked strongest first. The page defaults to today; the date strip moves to other days, and only fixtures with enough underlying result history to generate a model snapshot are eligible.

How accurate are these under 2.5 goals predictions?

Every settled prediction is scored and published on our model accuracy page, broken down by market and league. Treat any single day as a small sample — the model is built to be judged over hundreds of fixtures, not one card.

Are these predictions betting tips?

No. These are model outputs published for information, with no stake or return implied. Gambling carries real financial risk — please read our responsible gambling guidance.