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Under 2.5 Goals Predictions

Fixtures ranked by highest under 2.5 probability — Sunday 21 May 2023

Thu 18 Fri 19 Sat 20 Sun 21 Mon 22 Tue 23 Wed 24

Under 2.5 goals lands when a match produces 2 goals or fewer. Our prediction model sums the probability of every scoreline with 2 goals or fewer — 0–0, 1–0, 1–1, 2–0 and their mirror images. Only fixtures with 55%+ probability are shown.

20 matches cleared our threshold on Sunday 21 May 2023. The strongest reading belongs to AFC Eskilstuna vs Ostersunds FK at 78% in the Superettan. The shortlist runs from 78% down to 58%, so the depth of the card matters as much as the headline pick.

The shortlist spans six different competitions, a broad spread rather than one division dominating.

Of the 20 fixtures on this list that have since finished, nine landed the under 2.5 goals market — 45%. This is a single day's sample and swings heavily; the rolling record across all fixtures is on the model accuracy page.

Model output for information only — not betting advice. See the model's accuracy record.

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Superettan · Sweden 78%

✓ Under 2.5 78% BTTS No 70%

Ekstraklasa · Poland 78%

Under 2.5 78% BTTS No 69%

Ligue 1 · France 73%

Under 2.5 73% ✓ BTTS No 67%

Ekstraklasa · Poland 72%

Under 2.5 72% BTTS No 63%

Ligue 1 · France 69%

Under 2.5 69% BTTS No 60%

Premier League · Russia 69%

Under 2.5 69% ✓ BTTS No 60%

Primeira Liga · Portugal 64%

Under 2.5 64% BTTS No 58%

Serie A · Italy 63%

✓ Under 2.5 63% ✓ BTTS No 56%

Primeira Liga · Portugal 63%

✓ Under 2.5 63% ✓ BTTS No 59%

#10

Serie A · Brazil 63%

Under 2.5 63% BTTS No 55%

#11

Ligue 1 · France 63%

Under 2.5 63% BTTS No 56%

#12

2. Bundesliga · Germany 62%

✓ Under 2.5 62% ✓ BTTS No 57%

#13

Bundesliga · Austria 61%

Under 2.5 61% BTTS No 54%

#14

Eredivisie · Netherlands 61%

Under 2.5 61% ✓ BTTS No 56%

#15

Allsvenskan · Sweden 61%

✓ Under 2.5 61% ✓ BTTS No 58%

#16

Jupiler Pro League · Belgium 60%

✓ Under 2.5 60% ✓ BTTS No 55%

#17

Superettan · Sweden 60%

✓ Under 2.5 60% ✓ BTTS No 54%

#18

Primera División · Chile 60%

✓ Under 2.5 60% ✓ BTTS No 57%

#19

La Liga · Spain 60%

Under 2.5 60% ✓ BTTS No 60%

#20

Serie A · Italy 58%

Showing top 20 fixtures by under 2.5 probability (a 55% or higher under 2.5 probability). Predictions are generated by our prediction model and updated daily. For informational purposes only.

Related markets

Low Scoring Both Teams to Score – No Over 2.5 Goals

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Under 2.5 Goals — common questions

What does the Under 2.5 Goals market mean?

Under 2.5 Goals settles on whether a match finishes with 2 or fewer total goals. It is one of the most commonly offered football markets and is priced by every major bookmaker.

How does Fixture360 calculate under 2.5 goals probability?

Our Poisson model estimates each team's expected goals from their attack and defence strengths, then builds a probability for every possible scoreline. The under 2.5 probability shown here is the probability of 2 or fewer total goals, summed across every scoreline in the model's matrix. No bookmaker odds are used as an input — the model is independent of the market.

How many fixtures qualified for Under 2.5 Goals on Sunday 21 May 2023?

20 fixtures met the criteria, led by AFC Eskilstuna vs Ostersunds FK at 78% under 2.5 probability.

Which fixtures appear on this page?

Fixtures with a 55% or higher under 2.5 probability, ranked strongest first. The page defaults to today; the date strip moves to other days, and only fixtures with enough underlying result history to generate a model snapshot are eligible.

How accurate are these under 2.5 goals predictions?

Every settled prediction is scored and published on our model accuracy page, broken down by market and league. Treat any single day as a small sample — the model is built to be judged over hundreds of fixtures, not one card.

Are these predictions betting tips?

No. These are model outputs published for information, with no stake or return implied. Gambling carries real financial risk — please read our responsible gambling guidance.