Under 2.5 Goals Predictions
Fixtures ranked by highest under 2.5 probability — Friday 12 May 2023
Under 2.5 goals lands when a match produces 2 goals or fewer. Our prediction model sums the probability of every scoreline with 2 goals or fewer — 0–0, 1–0, 1–1, 2–0 and their mirror images. Only fixtures with 55%+ probability are shown.
The model shortlists 13 fixtures on Friday 12 May 2023. Lazio vs Lecce led the list at 69% in the Serie A. The shortlist runs from 69% down to 56%, which is a meaningful spread across a single day.
The shortlist spans eight different competitions, so there is no single league driving the day.
Of the 13 fixtures on this list that have since finished, four landed the under 2.5 goals market — 31%. This is a single day's sample and swings heavily; the rolling record across all fixtures is on the model accuracy page.
Model output for information only — not betting advice. See the model's accuracy record.
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Serie A · Italy
69%
Ekstraklasa · Poland
67%
Primeira Liga · Portugal
66%
Ligue 1 · France
65%
Thai League 1 · Thailand
64%
La Liga · Spain
62%
Thai League 1 · Thailand
62%
Premier Division · Ireland
60%
Premier Division · Ireland
60%
Pro League · United-Arab-Emirates
58%
Eredivisie · Netherlands
56%
Challenger Pro League · Belgium
56%
2. Bundesliga · Germany
56%
Showing top 13 fixtures by under 2.5 probability (a 55% or higher under 2.5 probability). Predictions are generated by our prediction model and updated daily. For informational purposes only.
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Portuguese Football PredictionsUnder 2.5 Goals — common questions
What does the Under 2.5 Goals market mean?
Under 2.5 Goals settles on whether a match finishes with 2 or fewer total goals. It is one of the most commonly offered football markets and is priced by every major bookmaker.
How does Fixture360 calculate under 2.5 goals probability?
Our Poisson model estimates each team's expected goals from their attack and defence strengths, then builds a probability for every possible scoreline. The under 2.5 probability shown here is the probability of 2 or fewer total goals, summed across every scoreline in the model's matrix. No bookmaker odds are used as an input — the model is independent of the market.
How many fixtures qualified for Under 2.5 Goals on Friday 12 May 2023?
13 fixtures met the criteria, led by Lazio vs Lecce at 69% under 2.5 probability.
Which fixtures appear on this page?
Fixtures with a 55% or higher under 2.5 probability, ranked strongest first. The page defaults to today; the date strip moves to other days, and only fixtures with enough underlying result history to generate a model snapshot are eligible.
How accurate are these under 2.5 goals predictions?
Every settled prediction is scored and published on our model accuracy page, broken down by market and league. Treat any single day as a small sample — the model is built to be judged over hundreds of fixtures, not one card.
Are these predictions betting tips?
No. These are model outputs published for information, with no stake or return implied. Gambling carries real financial risk — please read our responsible gambling guidance.