Mallorca 1-0 Cadiz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mallorca at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mallorca vs Cadiz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cadiz make the trip to Visit Mallorca Estadi to face Mallorca in La Liga, Regular Season - 34. The match kicks off on Friday 12 May 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Mallorca have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: W W L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Mallorca's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Visit Mallorca Estadi this term (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Visit Mallorca Estadi. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Mallorca are significantly better at Visit Mallorca Estadi than their overall form suggests.
Cadiz's overall La Liga record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Cadiz have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Mallorca, 1.00 for Cadiz — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Mallorca lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Jan 2023, ended 0–2 with Cadiz winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Mallorca goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Cadiz goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mallorca 45% versus Cadiz 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Mallorca 38% | Cadiz 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mallorca 1.43 xG and Cadiz 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mallorca attack 0.949 / defence 0.871 | Cadiz attack 0.835 / defence 1.059. League average goals — home 1.428 / away 1.056. Data: 71 Mallorca games / 71 Cadiz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mallorca 53% | Draw 27% | Cadiz 20%. Fair-value odds: Mallorca 1.89 | Draw 3.70 | Cadiz 5.00. Mallorca hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Mallorca as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mallorca if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.20 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Mallorca 40% | Cadiz 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mallorca vs Cadiz | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Visit Mallorca Estadi • Kick-off: Friday 12 May 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mallorca 53% | Draw 27% | Cadiz 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 41% | xG Mallorca 1.43 / Cadiz 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Mallorca attack 0.949 / def 0.871 | Cadiz attack 0.835 / def 1.059 | league avg home 1.428 / away 1.056 • Poisson stance: Mallorca (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Mallorca xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Cadiz xG
41%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mallorca vs Cadiz kick off?
Mallorca vs Cadiz kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 12 May 2023 at Visit Mallorca Estadi.
What was the final score in Mallorca vs Cadiz?
Mallorca 1 - 0 Cadiz.
Where is Mallorca vs Cadiz being played?
The match is being played at Visit Mallorca Estadi.
What competition is Mallorca vs Cadiz part of?
Mallorca vs Cadiz is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Mallorca vs Cadiz?
Our statistical model gives Mallorca a 53% chance of winning, Cadiz a 20% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Mallorca the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mallorca vs Cadiz?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Mallorca and Cadiz will score (BTTS).
Will Mallorca vs Cadiz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Cadiz?
Record (3 meetings): Mallorca 1W | Draws 1 | Cadiz 1W.
What form are Mallorca and Cadiz in?
Mallorca (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-D-L. Cadiz (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Mallorca's attack rating (0.95) and Cadiz's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cadiz's attack (0.83x) against Mallorca's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.77.
These ratings are built from 71/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.8%), 0-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mallorca Win
53%
1.89
27%
3.70
20%
4.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Mallorca xG
Total xG
2.20
0.77
Cadiz xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
4.99
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.45
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
46%
2.15
24%
4.20
Win to Nil
25%
4.07
5%
20.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 8.5 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.9 | 12.2 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 8.7 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.4 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mallorca vs Cadiz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Mallorca and Cadiz expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Mallorca and 0.77 for Cadiz, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Mallorca vs Cadiz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Mallorca's recent record stands at 21W 17D 33L from 71 games, a 1.13 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-L in the last five.
Cadiz, meanwhile, have gone 16W 26D 29L across 71 games — 1.04 PPG, with L-D-L-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.13 PPG for Mallorca against 1.04 for Cadiz. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Mallorca have managed 14W 11D 10L from 35 games — 1.51 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cadiz's away record stands at 8W 11D 16L across 35 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mallorca come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mallorca are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Cadiz are on 0.86 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 71 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mallorca
Current Season
Cadiz
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mallorca and Cadiz in coming into this match?
Mallorca have gone 21W 17D 33L in their last 71 games (1.13 PPG), while Cadiz have gone 16W 26D 29L in their last 71 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mallorca at home or Cadiz away?
Mallorca's home record (1.51 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mallorca at home: 1.51 PPG; Cadiz away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Mallorca or Cadiz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mallorca have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Cadiz in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mallorca have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Cadiz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Mallorca
3
Draws
1
Cadiz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Cadiz?
From 6 meetings on record, Mallorca have won 2, Cadiz have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mallorca and Cadiz last play each other?
They last met on 28 April 2024, when Cadiz 1-1 Mallorca.
Who has won more matches between Mallorca and Cadiz?
Mallorca have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mallorca see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Cadiz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mallorca 46%, Cadiz 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 31% for Mallorca and 37% for Cadiz.
On the defensive side: Mallorca keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Cadiz in 37%; Mallorca have failed to score in 31% of games; Cadiz in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mallorca home games / Cadiz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mallorca play Cadiz?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Mallorca's recent matches and 40% of Cadiz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mallorca vs Cadiz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Mallorca's recent games and 37% of Cadiz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mallorca and Cadiz tend to score early?
Mallorca have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Cadiz in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Mallorca edge out Cadiz 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mallorca beat Cadiz 1-0 at Visit Mallorca Estadi, Regular Season - 34, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 1.43 xG and Cadiz 0.77 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 0.95 / defence 0.87 against Cadiz attack 0.83 / defence 1.06, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mallorca 53% | Draw 27% | Cadiz 20%, with Mallorca to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 38%, Cadiz 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mallorca's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not.
Cadiz's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mallorca 1.13 PPG, Cadiz 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mallorca win broke the near-deadlock. Mallorca (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.