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Shock result as Polessya defy the odds to beat Zorya Luhansk 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Polessya beat Zorya Luhansk 0-1 at Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi, Regular Season - 29, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Zorya Luhansk 1.14 xG and Polessya 1.10 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Zorya Luhansk fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zorya Luhansk attack 0.95 / defence 1.07 against Polessya attack 1.00 / defence 1.02, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Zorya Luhansk 36% | Draw 30% | Polessya 34%, with Zorya Luhansk to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Polessya win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zorya Luhansk 52%, Polessya 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Zorya Luhansk's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Polessya's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Polessya arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.19. Form held, and they took the win. Zorya Luhansk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward. Polessya (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights