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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Zorya Luhansk and Metalist 1925 Kharkiv share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadion Valerija Lobanovskoho, Regular Season - 27, as Zorya Luhansk and Metalist 1925 Kharkiv drew 1-1 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Zorya Luhansk 1.12 xG and Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 0.89 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zorya Luhansk attack 1.10 / defence 0.80 against Metalist 1925 Kharkiv attack 0.92 / defence 0.82, drawn from 56/26 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Zorya Luhansk 40% | Draw 33% | Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 27%, with Zorya Luhansk to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zorya Luhansk 52%, Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 21%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Zorya Luhansk's trading profile (29 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv's trading profile (29 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Zorya Luhansk 1.45 PPG, Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 1.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights