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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Zorya Luhansk edge out Vorskla Poltava 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Zorya Luhansk beat Vorskla Poltava 1-2 at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho, Regular Season - 23, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Vorskla Poltava 0.88 xG and Zorya Luhansk 1.08 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Zorya Luhansk outscored their 1.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vorskla Poltava attack 0.70 / defence 1.02 against Zorya Luhansk attack 1.16 / defence 1.08, drawn from 52/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Vorskla Poltava 29% | Draw 31% | Zorya Luhansk 40%, with Zorya Luhansk to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vorskla Poltava 41%, Zorya Luhansk 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.

Zorya Luhansk's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Vorskla Poltava 1.06 PPG, Zorya Luhansk 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zorya Luhansk win broke the near-deadlock. Zorya Luhansk (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights