Vorskla Poltava 0-1 Shakhtar Donetsk – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Shakhtar Donetsk at 70% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vorskla Poltava vs Shakhtar Donetsk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Vorskla Poltava host Shakhtar Donetsk at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho in Premier League, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 14 April 2024 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Vorskla Poltava — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W W L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Vorskla Poltava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho, Vorskla Poltava have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Premier League games this season, Shakhtar Donetsk have recorded 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Shakhtar Donetsk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shakhtar Donetsk's away record: 6W 3D 1L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Shakhtar Donetsk — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.50 vs 1.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Vorskla Poltava register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Shakhtar Donetsk in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Vorskla Poltava have won 2, Shakhtar Donetsk 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 30 Sep 2023, ended 2–1 with Vorskla Poltava winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Vorskla Poltava in-play and half-time data (51 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Shakhtar Donetsk in-play and half-time data (51 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vorskla Poltava 53% versus Shakhtar Donetsk 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vorskla Poltava 47% | Shakhtar Donetsk 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vorskla Poltava 0.95 xG and Shakhtar Donetsk 2.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vorskla Poltava attack 1.061 / defence 1.321 | Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.402 / defence 0.802. League average goals — home 1.116 / away 1.332. Shakhtar Donetsk have an above-average attack strength of 1.402 — the away xG of 2.47 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 53 Vorskla Poltava games / 51 Shakhtar Donetsk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 12% | Draw 18% | Shakhtar Donetsk 70%. Fair-value odds: Vorskla Poltava 8.33 | Draw 5.56 | Shakhtar Donetsk 1.43. The model has a clear lean to Shakhtar Donetsk (70%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.42. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.42 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shakhtar Donetsk at 70% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.42 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Vorskla Poltava 70% | Shakhtar Donetsk 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vorskla Poltava vs Shakhtar Donetsk | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Apr 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 12% | Draw 18% | Shakhtar Donetsk 70% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 57% | xG Vorskla Poltava 0.95 / Shakhtar Donetsk 2.47 • Poisson strength factors: Vorskla Poltava attack 1.061 / def 1.321 | Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.402 / def 0.802 | league avg home 1.116 / away 1.332 • Poisson stance: Shakhtar Donetsk (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Vorskla Poltava xG
Expected Goals
2.47
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
57%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vorskla Poltava vs Shakhtar Donetsk kick off?
Vorskla Poltava vs Shakhtar Donetsk kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 14 April 2024 at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho.
What was the final score in Vorskla Poltava vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Vorskla Poltava 0 - 1 Shakhtar Donetsk.
Where is Vorskla Poltava vs Shakhtar Donetsk being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho.
What competition is Vorskla Poltava vs Shakhtar Donetsk part of?
Vorskla Poltava vs Shakhtar Donetsk is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Vorskla Poltava vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our statistical model gives Vorskla Poltava a 12% chance of winning, Shakhtar Donetsk a 70% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Shakhtar Donetsk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vorskla Poltava vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Vorskla Poltava and Shakhtar Donetsk will score (BTTS).
Will Vorskla Poltava vs Shakhtar Donetsk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vorskla Poltava and Shakhtar Donetsk?
Record (4 meetings): Vorskla Poltava 2W | Draws 0 | Shakhtar Donetsk 2W.
What form are Vorskla Poltava and Shakhtar Donetsk in?
Vorskla Poltava (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-L-D. Shakhtar Donetsk (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Vorskla Poltava's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Shakhtar Donetsk's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.95. The same calculation in reverse, Shakhtar Donetsk's attack versus Vorskla Poltava's defence, projects 2.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-2, at 10.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 1-1 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shakhtar Donetsk Win
12%
8.34
18%
5.56
70%
1.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
10.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 3
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Vorskla Poltava xG
Total xG
3.42
2.47
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
8.34
12%
Home win
5.56
18%
Draw
1.43
70%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
8%
11.80
39%
2.59
Win to Nil
1%
98.41
27%
3.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 8.1 | 10.0 | 8.2 | 5.1 | 2.5 |
| 1 | 3.1 | 7.7 | 9.5 | 7.8 | 4.8 | 2.4 |
| 2 | 1.5 | 3.7 | 4.5 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vorskla Poltava vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Vorskla Poltava and Shakhtar Donetsk expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Vorskla Poltava and 2.47 for Shakhtar Donetsk, a combined total of 3.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Vorskla Poltava vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Vorskla Poltava's recent record stands at 21W 12D 18L from 51 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Vorskla Poltava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shakhtar Donetsk, meanwhile, have gone 37W 10D 4L across 51 games — 2.37 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Shakhtar Donetsk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shakhtar Donetsk by 0.90 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Vorskla Poltava heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Vorskla Poltava have managed 11W 5D 8L from 24 games — 1.58 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shakhtar Donetsk's away record stands at 16W 6D 2L across 24 trips, a 2.25 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shakhtar Donetsk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Vorskla Poltava are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Shakhtar Donetsk are on 2.24 scored and 0.76 conceded.
Defensively: Shakhtar Donetsk in 49% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vorskla Poltava
Blended
Shakhtar Donetsk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vorskla Poltava and Shakhtar Donetsk in coming into this match?
Vorskla Poltava have gone 21W 12D 18L in their last 51 games (1.47 PPG), while Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 37W 10D 4L in their last 51 (2.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vorskla Poltava at home or Shakhtar Donetsk away?
Shakhtar Donetsk's away record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vorskla Poltava at home: 1.58 PPG; Shakhtar Donetsk away: 2.25 PPG.
Have Vorskla Poltava or Shakhtar Donetsk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vorskla Poltava have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Shakhtar Donetsk in 49%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Vorskla Poltava and Shakhtar Donetsk runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 December 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Shakhtar Donetsk go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Aug 2024, when Shakhtar Donetsk won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Vorskla Poltava's record when hosting Shakhtar Donetsk specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Vorskla Poltava
0
Draws
5
Shakhtar Donetsk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vorskla Poltava and Shakhtar Donetsk?
From 7 meetings on record, Vorskla Poltava have won 2, Shakhtar Donetsk have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Vorskla Poltava and Shakhtar Donetsk last play each other?
They last met on 5 December 2024, when Shakhtar Donetsk 3-1 Vorskla Poltava.
Who has won more matches between Vorskla Poltava and Shakhtar Donetsk?
Shakhtar Donetsk have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Vorskla Poltava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Shakhtar Donetsk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vorskla Poltava 58%, Shakhtar Donetsk 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Vorskla Poltava) and 62% (Shakhtar Donetsk). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Vorskla Poltava keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Shakhtar Donetsk in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vorskla Poltava home games / Shakhtar Donetsk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vorskla Poltava play Shakhtar Donetsk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Vorskla Poltava's games and 58% of Shakhtar Donetsk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vorskla Poltava vs Shakhtar Donetsk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Vorskla Poltava's matches and 62% of Shakhtar Donetsk's.
Do Vorskla Poltava and Shakhtar Donetsk tend to score early?
Vorskla Poltava have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Shakhtar Donetsk in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shakhtar Donetsk edge out Vorskla Poltava 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shakhtar Donetsk beat Vorskla Poltava 0-1 at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho, Regular Season - 24, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vorskla Poltava 0.95 xG and Shakhtar Donetsk 2.47 xG, a combined 3.42. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Vorskla Poltava fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Shakhtar Donetsk landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vorskla Poltava attack 1.06 / defence 1.32 against Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.40 / defence 0.80, drawn from 53/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vorskla Poltava 12% | Draw 18% | Shakhtar Donetsk 70%, with Shakhtar Donetsk to win its most likely call at 70%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vorskla Poltava 47%, Shakhtar Donetsk 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (51 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Shakhtar Donetsk's trading profile (51 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Shakhtar Donetsk arrived the stronger side — 2.37 PPG against 1.47. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Vorskla Poltava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward. Shakhtar Donetsk (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.46 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.