Kryvbas KR 1-1 Vorskla Poltava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kryvbas KR at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kryvbas KR vs Vorskla Poltava fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Shakhty Zhovtneva plays host to Kryvbas KR versus Vorskla Poltava in Premier League, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Monday 8 April 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Kryvbas KR have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Kryvbas KR, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kryvbas KR at Stadion Shakhty Zhovtneva this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Vorskla Poltava's overall Premier League record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Vorskla Poltava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vorskla Poltava's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Kryvbas KR's favour (2.00 vs 1.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Kryvbas KR 2W, Vorskla Poltava 1W, 0D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Sep 2023, ended 4–1 with Kryvbas KR winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Kryvbas KR goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Vorskla Poltava goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kryvbas KR 36% versus Vorskla Poltava 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kryvbas KR 42% | Vorskla Poltava 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kryvbas KR 1.03 xG and Vorskla Poltava 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kryvbas KR attack 1.070 / defence 0.809 | Vorskla Poltava attack 0.750 / defence 0.866. League average goals — home 1.116 / away 1.331. Data: 52 Kryvbas KR games / 52 Vorskla Poltava games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kryvbas KR 40% | Draw 32% | Vorskla Poltava 28%. Fair-value odds: Kryvbas KR 2.50 | Draw 3.12 | Vorskla Poltava 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.84. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.84 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Kryvbas KR as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kryvbas KR if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.84 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 28% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 36% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Kryvbas KR 50% | Vorskla Poltava 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kryvbas KR vs Vorskla Poltava | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadion Shakhty Zhovtneva • Kick-off: Monday 8 Apr 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kryvbas KR 40% | Draw 32% | Vorskla Poltava 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 36% | xG Kryvbas KR 1.03 / Vorskla Poltava 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Kryvbas KR attack 1.070 / def 0.809 | Vorskla Poltava attack 0.750 / def 0.866 | league avg home 1.116 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: Kryvbas KR (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Kryvbas KR xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Vorskla Poltava xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kryvbas KR vs Vorskla Poltava kick off?
Kryvbas KR vs Vorskla Poltava kicked off at 16:00 on Monday 8 April 2024 at Stadion Shakhty Zhovtneva.
What was the final score in Kryvbas KR vs Vorskla Poltava?
Kryvbas KR 1 - 1 Vorskla Poltava.
Where is Kryvbas KR vs Vorskla Poltava being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Shakhty Zhovtneva.
What competition is Kryvbas KR vs Vorskla Poltava part of?
Kryvbas KR vs Vorskla Poltava is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Kryvbas KR vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our statistical model gives Kryvbas KR a 40% chance of winning, Vorskla Poltava a 28% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Kryvbas KR the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kryvbas KR vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Kryvbas KR and Vorskla Poltava will score (BTTS).
Will Kryvbas KR vs Vorskla Poltava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kryvbas KR and Vorskla Poltava?
Record (3 meetings): Kryvbas KR 2W | Draws 0 | Vorskla Poltava 1W.
What form are Kryvbas KR and Vorskla Poltava in?
Kryvbas KR (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Vorskla Poltava (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Kryvbas KR's attack rating (1.07) and Vorskla Poltava's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Vorskla Poltava's attack (0.75x) against Kryvbas KR's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kryvbas KR Win
40%
2.50
32%
3.10
28%
3.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Kryvbas KR xG
Total xG
1.84
0.81
Vorskla Poltava xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
3.60
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.80
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
45%
2.24
36%
2.81
Win to Nil
18%
5.60
10%
10.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.9 | 12.8 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.4 | 13.2 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 8.5 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kryvbas KR vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.6%.
How many goals are Kryvbas KR and Vorskla Poltava expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Kryvbas KR and 0.81 for Vorskla Poltava, a combined total of 1.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Kryvbas KR vs Vorskla Poltava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 52 outings, Kryvbas KR have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 26W 9D 17L record — W-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Kryvbas KR is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vorskla Poltava's form line: 21W 11D 20L from 52 games, 1.42 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-L. The sample for Vorskla Poltava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.67 PPG for Kryvbas KR against 1.42 for Vorskla Poltava. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Kryvbas KR have posted 1.88 PPG from 26 outings (15W 4D 7L).
On the road, Vorskla Poltava have gone 10W 5D 11L from 26 away games — 1.35 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kryvbas KR come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kryvbas KR are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Vorskla Poltava are on 1.15 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Defensively: Kryvbas KR have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kryvbas KR
Blended
Vorskla Poltava
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kryvbas KR and Vorskla Poltava in coming into this match?
Kryvbas KR have gone 26W 9D 17L in their last 52 games (1.67 PPG), while Vorskla Poltava have gone 21W 11D 20L in their last 52 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kryvbas KR at home or Vorskla Poltava away?
Kryvbas KR's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kryvbas KR at home: 1.88 PPG; Vorskla Poltava away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Kryvbas KR or Vorskla Poltava been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kryvbas KR have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Vorskla Poltava in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Kryvbas KR won 1-4 on 23 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kryvbas KR have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Vorskla Poltava — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Kryvbas KR
2
Draws
1
Vorskla Poltava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kryvbas KR and Vorskla Poltava?
From 6 meetings on record, Kryvbas KR have won 3, Vorskla Poltava have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kryvbas KR and Vorskla Poltava last play each other?
They last met on 30 March 2025, when Vorskla Poltava 0-1 Kryvbas KR.
Who has won more matches between Kryvbas KR and Vorskla Poltava?
Kryvbas KR have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kryvbas KR see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Vorskla Poltava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kryvbas KR 35%, Vorskla Poltava 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Kryvbas KR) and 46% (Vorskla Poltava).
On the defensive side: Kryvbas KR keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Kryvbas KR have failed to score in 27% of games; Vorskla Poltava in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kryvbas KR home games / Vorskla Poltava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kryvbas KR play Vorskla Poltava?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Kryvbas KR's recent matches and 50% of Vorskla Poltava's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kryvbas KR vs Vorskla Poltava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Kryvbas KR's recent games and 46% of Vorskla Poltava's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kryvbas KR and Vorskla Poltava tend to score early?
Kryvbas KR have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Vorskla Poltava in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kryvbas KR and Vorskla Poltava share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Shakhty Zhovtneva, Regular Season - 23, as Kryvbas KR and Vorskla Poltava drew 1-1 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kryvbas KR 1.03 xG and Vorskla Poltava 0.81 xG, a combined 1.84. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kryvbas KR attack 1.07 / defence 0.81 against Vorskla Poltava attack 0.75 / defence 0.87, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kryvbas KR 40% | Draw 32% | Vorskla Poltava 28%, with Kryvbas KR to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kryvbas KR 42%, Vorskla Poltava 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kryvbas KR's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kryvbas KR 1.67 PPG, Vorskla Poltava 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.