Vorskla Poltava 0-1 Kudrivka – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Vorskla Poltava at 34% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vorskla Poltava vs Kudrivka encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Kudrivka make the trip to Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho to face Vorskla Poltava in Premier League, Relegation Round. The match kicks off on Sunday 1 June 2025 at 11:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Vorskla Poltava have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D L D D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Vorskla Poltava's form when playing at home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 games at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho this term (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Kudrivka's overall Premier League record this term: 0W 0D 1L from 1 games (0.00 PPG). Last five: L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Kudrivka have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form ledger tips toward Vorskla Poltava. A 0.90 PPG lead over Kudrivka (0.90 vs 0.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Vorskla Poltava, 0 for Kudrivka and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 29 May 2025, ended 2–1 with Vorskla Poltava winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vorskla Poltava 1.11 xG and Kudrivka 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vorskla Poltava attack 0.844 / defence 1.248 | Kudrivka attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.147 / away 1.010. Data: 60 Vorskla Poltava games / 0 Kudrivka games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 34% | Draw 33% | Kudrivka 32%. Fair-value odds: Vorskla Poltava 2.94 | Draw 3.03 | Kudrivka 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Vorskla Poltava as the most likely outcome at 34% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vorskla Poltava if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.19 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vorskla Poltava vs Kudrivka | Competition: Premier League, Relegation Round | Venue: Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Jun 2025, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 34% | Draw 33% | Kudrivka 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 46% | xG Vorskla Poltava 1.11 / Kudrivka 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Vorskla Poltava attack 0.844 / def 1.248 | Kudrivka attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.147 / away 1.010 • Poisson stance: Vorskla Poltava (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Vorskla Poltava xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Kudrivka xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vorskla Poltava vs Kudrivka kick off?
Vorskla Poltava vs Kudrivka kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 1 June 2025 at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho.
What was the final score in Vorskla Poltava vs Kudrivka?
Vorskla Poltava 0 - 1 Kudrivka.
Where is Vorskla Poltava vs Kudrivka being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho.
What competition is Vorskla Poltava vs Kudrivka part of?
Vorskla Poltava vs Kudrivka is a Relegation Round fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Vorskla Poltava vs Kudrivka?
Our statistical model gives Vorskla Poltava a 34% chance of winning, Kudrivka a 32% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Vorskla Poltava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vorskla Poltava vs Kudrivka?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Vorskla Poltava and Kudrivka will score (BTTS).
Will Vorskla Poltava vs Kudrivka have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vorskla Poltava and Kudrivka?
Record (1 meetings): Vorskla Poltava 1W | Draws 0 | Kudrivka 0W.
What form are Vorskla Poltava and Kudrivka in?
Vorskla Poltava (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-D-D-W. Kudrivka (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Vorskla Poltava's attack at 0.84x the league average against Kudrivka's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.11 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Kudrivka's attack (0.85x) against Vorskla Poltava's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 60/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vorskla Poltava Win
34%
2.91
33%
2.99
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Vorskla Poltava xG
Total xG
2.19
1.07
Kudrivka xG
2.91
34%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
33%
3.05
Win to Nil
12%
8.49
11%
9.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 12.0 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.4 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 7.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vorskla Poltava vs Kudrivka?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Vorskla Poltava and Kudrivka expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Vorskla Poltava and 1.07 for Kudrivka, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Vorskla Poltava vs Kudrivka?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Vorskla Poltava come into this having played 1 games, going 1W 0D 0L for 3.00 points per game. Their last five reads W. It's still early in the season for Vorskla Poltava, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Kudrivka sit at 0.00 PPG from 1 outings (0W 0D 1L), a run that reads L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Kudrivka, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Vorskla Poltava carry the stronger recent form of the two, 3.00 PPG clear of Kudrivka — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Vorskla Poltava are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Kudrivka are on 1.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vorskla Poltava have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Kudrivka in 100%.
Last 1 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vorskla Poltava
Early Season
Kudrivka
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vorskla Poltava and Kudrivka in coming into this match?
Vorskla Poltava have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while Kudrivka have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since May 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 June 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Vorskla Poltava
0
Draws
1
Kudrivka
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vorskla Poltava and Kudrivka?
From 2 meetings on record, Vorskla Poltava have won 1, Kudrivka have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Vorskla Poltava and Kudrivka last play each other?
They last met on 1 June 2025, when Vorskla Poltava 0-1 Kudrivka.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vorskla Poltava home games / Kudrivka away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vorskla Poltava play Kudrivka?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Vorskla Poltava's games and 100% of Kudrivka's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vorskla Poltava vs Kudrivka usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Vorskla Poltava's matches and 100% of Kudrivka's.
Do Vorskla Poltava and Kudrivka tend to score early?
Vorskla Poltava have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Kudrivka in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Kudrivka defy the odds to beat Vorskla Poltava 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kudrivka beat Vorskla Poltava 0-1 at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho, Relegation Round, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vorskla Poltava 1.11 xG and Kudrivka 1.07 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Vorskla Poltava fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vorskla Poltava attack 0.84 / defence 1.25 against Kudrivka attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 60/0 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vorskla Poltava 34% | Draw 33% | Kudrivka 32%, with Vorskla Poltava to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual Kudrivka win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vorskla Poltava 100%, Kudrivka 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Vorskla Poltava arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with Kudrivka winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Vorskla Poltava managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Kudrivka conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.