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Stalemate at Vorskla Poltava's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho, Regular Season - 20, as Vorskla Poltava and Karpaty drew 0-0 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Vorskla Poltava 1.27 xG and Karpaty 0.75 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Vorskla Poltava fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vorskla Poltava attack 0.84 / defence 1.12 against Karpaty attack 0.73 / defence 1.25, drawn from 49/19 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Vorskla Poltava 49% | Draw 29% | Karpaty 22%, with Vorskla Poltava to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vorskla Poltava 37%, Karpaty 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 34%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (19 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Karpaty's trading profile (19 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Karpaty arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 0.89. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Vorskla Poltava (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. Karpaty (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights