Vorskla Poltava 1-1 Dynamo Kyiv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Dynamo Kyiv (53%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Vorskla Poltava face Dynamo Kyiv.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 19 as Vorskla Poltava welcome Dynamo Kyiv to Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi. Kick-off is set for Friday 28 February 2025 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Vorskla Poltava stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Vorskla Poltava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vorskla Poltava's home record at Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Premier League games this season, Dynamo Kyiv have recorded 7W 3D 0L from 10 outings — 2.40 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Dynamo Kyiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Dynamo Kyiv have posted 7W 2D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Dynamo Kyiv's 2.40 PPG return is 1.70 points per game ahead of Vorskla Poltava's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Dynamo Kyiv have the better historical record — 4 wins from 6 previous contests against 1 for Vorskla Poltava.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2024, ended 1–3 with Dynamo Kyiv winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Dynamo Kyiv have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Vorskla Poltava trading profile (48 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Dynamo Kyiv trading profile (48 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vorskla Poltava 46% versus Dynamo Kyiv 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vorskla Poltava 46% | Dynamo Kyiv 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vorskla Poltava 0.81 xG and Dynamo Kyiv 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vorskla Poltava attack 0.825 / defence 1.148 | Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.288 / defence 0.850. League average goals — home 1.152 / away 1.001. Dynamo Kyiv have an above-average attack strength of 1.288 — the away xG of 1.48 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 48 Vorskla Poltava games / 48 Dynamo Kyiv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 20% | Draw 26% | Dynamo Kyiv 53%. Fair-value odds: Vorskla Poltava 5.00 | Draw 3.85 | Dynamo Kyiv 1.89. Dynamo Kyiv hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dynamo Kyiv are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dynamo Kyiv offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Vorskla Poltava 20% | Dynamo Kyiv 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vorskla Poltava vs Dynamo Kyiv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi • Kick-off: Friday 28 Feb 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 20% | Draw 26% | Dynamo Kyiv 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 43% | xG Vorskla Poltava 0.81 / Dynamo Kyiv 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Vorskla Poltava attack 0.825 / def 1.148 | Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.288 / def 0.850 | league avg home 1.152 / away 1.001 • Poisson stance: Dynamo Kyiv (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Vorskla Poltava xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Dynamo Kyiv xG
43%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vorskla Poltava vs Dynamo Kyiv kick off?
Vorskla Poltava vs Dynamo Kyiv kicked off at 13:30 on Friday 28 February 2025 at Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi.
What was the final score in Vorskla Poltava vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Vorskla Poltava 1 - 1 Dynamo Kyiv.
Where is Vorskla Poltava vs Dynamo Kyiv being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi.
What competition is Vorskla Poltava vs Dynamo Kyiv part of?
Vorskla Poltava vs Dynamo Kyiv is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Vorskla Poltava vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Our statistical model gives Vorskla Poltava a 20% chance of winning, Dynamo Kyiv a 53% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Dynamo Kyiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vorskla Poltava vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Vorskla Poltava and Dynamo Kyiv will score (BTTS).
Will Vorskla Poltava vs Dynamo Kyiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vorskla Poltava and Dynamo Kyiv?
Record (6 meetings): Vorskla Poltava 1W | Draws 1 | Dynamo Kyiv 4W.
What form are Vorskla Poltava and Dynamo Kyiv in?
Vorskla Poltava (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Dynamo Kyiv (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Vorskla Poltava's attack rating (0.82) and Dynamo Kyiv's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 0.81 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Dynamo Kyiv's attack versus Vorskla Poltava's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.4%), 0-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dynamo Kyiv Win
20%
4.88
26%
3.78
53%
1.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
0 – 2
11.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Vorskla Poltava xG
Total xG
2.29
1.48
Dynamo Kyiv xG
4.88
20%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
1.88
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
23%
4.39
45%
2.24
Win to Nil
5%
21.41
24%
4.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 15.0 | 11.1 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.1 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 4.9 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vorskla Poltava vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Vorskla Poltava and Dynamo Kyiv expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Vorskla Poltava and 1.48 for Dynamo Kyiv, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Vorskla Poltava vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Vorskla Poltava come into this having played 48 games, going 13W 10D 25L for 1.02 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-L. The sample for Vorskla Poltava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dynamo Kyiv sit at 2.40 PPG from 48 outings (36W 7D 5L), a run that reads D-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Dynamo Kyiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dynamo Kyiv carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.38 PPG clear of Vorskla Poltava — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Vorskla Poltava's home form reads 6W 4D 12L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Dynamo Kyiv have taken 2.23 points per game from 22 outings (15W 4D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dynamo Kyiv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Vorskla Poltava are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Dynamo Kyiv are on 2.31 scored and 0.81 conceded.
Defensively: Dynamo Kyiv in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vorskla Poltava
Blended
Dynamo Kyiv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vorskla Poltava and Dynamo Kyiv in coming into this match?
Vorskla Poltava have gone 13W 10D 25L in their last 48 games (1.02 PPG), while Dynamo Kyiv have gone 36W 7D 5L in their last 48 (2.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vorskla Poltava at home or Dynamo Kyiv away?
Dynamo Kyiv's away record (2.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vorskla Poltava at home: 1.00 PPG; Dynamo Kyiv away: 2.23 PPG.
Have Vorskla Poltava or Dynamo Kyiv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vorskla Poltava have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Dynamo Kyiv in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Mar 2024, when Dynamo Kyiv won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Vorskla Poltava's record when hosting Dynamo Kyiv specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Vorskla Poltava
2
Draws
4
Dynamo Kyiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vorskla Poltava and Dynamo Kyiv?
From 7 meetings on record, Vorskla Poltava have won 1, Dynamo Kyiv have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Vorskla Poltava and Dynamo Kyiv last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2025, when Vorskla Poltava 1-1 Dynamo Kyiv.
Who has won more matches between Vorskla Poltava and Dynamo Kyiv?
Dynamo Kyiv have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Vorskla Poltava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Dynamo Kyiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vorskla Poltava 46%, Dynamo Kyiv 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Vorskla Poltava) and 64% (Dynamo Kyiv). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Vorskla Poltava have failed to score in 41% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vorskla Poltava home games / Dynamo Kyiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vorskla Poltava play Dynamo Kyiv?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Vorskla Poltava's games and 68% of Dynamo Kyiv's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vorskla Poltava vs Dynamo Kyiv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Vorskla Poltava's matches and 64% of Dynamo Kyiv's.
Do Vorskla Poltava and Dynamo Kyiv tend to score early?
Vorskla Poltava have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Dynamo Kyiv in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Vorskla Poltava and Dynamo Kyiv share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi, Regular Season - 19, as Vorskla Poltava and Dynamo Kyiv drew 1-1 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vorskla Poltava 0.81 xG and Dynamo Kyiv 1.48 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vorskla Poltava attack 0.82 / defence 1.15 against Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.29 / defence 0.85, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vorskla Poltava 20% | Draw 26% | Dynamo Kyiv 53%, with Dynamo Kyiv to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vorskla Poltava 46%, Dynamo Kyiv 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (48 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Dynamo Kyiv's trading profile (48 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Dynamo Kyiv arrived the stronger side — 2.40 PPG against 1.02. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Dynamo Kyiv (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.36 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.