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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Veres Rivne and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Veres Rivne and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi finished level at 3-3 at Avanhard, Regular Season - 26, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Veres Rivne 1.34 xG and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0.86 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Veres Rivne beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi outscored their 0.86 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Veres Rivne attack 0.88 / defence 1.01 against Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.68 / defence 1.18, drawn from 55/25 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Veres Rivne 47% | Draw 29% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 23%, with Veres Rivne to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Veres Rivne 31%, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 35%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Veres Rivne's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Veres Rivne 1.15 PPG, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Veres Rivne (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights