Veres Rivne 3-1 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Veres Rivne at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Veres Rivne vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Relegation Round as Veres Rivne welcome Epitsentr Dunayivtsi to Stadion Avanhard. Kick-off is set for Sunday 2 June 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Veres Rivne have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W D D W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Veres Rivne at Stadion Avanhard this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi stand at 0W 1D 0L from 1 Premier League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Veres Rivne) versus 1.00 (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using overall form). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Veres Rivne, 0 for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 May 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Veres Rivne 1.69 xG and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Veres Rivne attack 1.140 / defence 1.099 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.289 / away 1.202. Data: 60 Veres Rivne games / 0 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Veres Rivne 51% | Draw 24% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 25%. Fair-value odds: Veres Rivne 1.96 | Draw 4.17 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 4.00. Veres Rivne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Veres Rivne at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Veres Rivne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Veres Rivne vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | Competition: Premier League, Relegation Round | Venue: Stadion Avanhard • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Jun 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Veres Rivne 51% | Draw 24% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG Veres Rivne 1.69 / Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Veres Rivne attack 1.140 / def 1.099 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.289 / away 1.202 • Poisson stance: Veres Rivne (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Veres Rivne xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Veres Rivne vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi kick off?
Veres Rivne vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 2 June 2024 at Stadion Avanhard.
What was the final score in Veres Rivne vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Veres Rivne 3 - 1 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi.
Where is Veres Rivne vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Avanhard.
What competition is Veres Rivne vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi part of?
Veres Rivne vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi is a Relegation Round fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Veres Rivne vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Our statistical model gives Veres Rivne a 51% chance of winning, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi a 25% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Veres Rivne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Veres Rivne vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Veres Rivne and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi will score (BTTS).
Will Veres Rivne vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Veres Rivne and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Record (1 meetings): Veres Rivne 0W | Draws 1 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0W.
What form are Veres Rivne and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in?
Veres Rivne (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-D-W-D. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Veres Rivne's attack rating (1.14) and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.69 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's attack versus Veres Rivne's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Veres Rivne Win
51%
1.98
24%
4.15
25%
3.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Veres Rivne xG
Total xG
2.81
1.12
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
1.98
51%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
3.95
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
18%
5.42
Win to Nil
16%
6.07
5%
21.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 6.7 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 11.4 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Veres Rivne vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Veres Rivne and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Veres Rivne and 1.12 for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Veres Rivne vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 1 outings, Veres Rivne have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 0W 1D 0L record — D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Veres Rivne, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's form line: 0W 1D 0L from 1 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D. It's still early in the season for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Veres Rivne on 1.00 PPG, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Veres Rivne are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Veres Rivne have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in 100%.
Last 1 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Veres Rivne
Early Season
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Veres Rivne and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in coming into this match?
Veres Rivne have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 games (1.00 PPG), while Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 (1.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Veres Rivne and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Veres Rivne's record when hosting Epitsentr Dunayivtsi specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Veres Rivne
2
Draws
0
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Veres Rivne and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
From 4 meetings on record, Veres Rivne have won 2, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Veres Rivne and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Veres Rivne 3-3 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi.
Who has won more matches between Veres Rivne and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Veres Rivne have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Veres Rivne home games / Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Veres Rivne play Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Veres Rivne's games and 100% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Veres Rivne vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Veres Rivne's recent games and 0% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Veres Rivne and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi tend to score early?
Veres Rivne have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Veres Rivne cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Epitsentr Dunayivtsi.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Veres Rivne beat Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 3-1 at Stadion Avanhard, Relegation Round, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Veres Rivne 1.69 xG and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.12 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Veres Rivne beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Veres Rivne attack 1.14 / defence 1.10 against Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 60/0 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Veres Rivne 51% | Draw 24% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 25%, with Veres Rivne to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Veres Rivne 0%, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Veres Rivne 1.00 PPG, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Veres Rivne win broke the near-deadlock. Veres Rivne scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.